NFL Merry-Go-Round: Relocation Roundelay

[Gothamite]

26 minutes ago, HedleyLamarr said:

Why is there so much desire to see the Las Vegas NHL team fail? 

 

There isn't.  

 

You're confusing "I think this is a bad idea and that it will fail" with "I want it to fail."   

 

And frankly, given both Bettman's history and the owner's bungling, there's ample reason to hold that opinion.  

[IceCap]

32 minutes ago, HedleyLamarr said:

Why is there so much desire to see the Las Vegas NHL team fail?  Not just from you, but from others on here.  I ask this on the condition of not getting some response of "I'm mad Quebec City didn't get a team." or "Maybe their failure will lead to Quebec getting the team.".

We've seen the NHL try and fail in the desert before. There's no defending the two decade old money pit in Arizona anymore. 

It doesn't seem like the NHL has learnt from their mistake. Like Arizona they're forsaking a traditional, passionate market for an untested market in the desert. People want to see the NHL punished for their hubris. Especially because it's not even earned hubris. Arizona was, and remains, a disaster.

 

 I think many of us have been really curious for years to see if Las Vegas can handle a sports team that has 40-80 home games in a season.  We had our chance, even if it was the sport we least expected to have a team there.  Now we're just going to have an incomplete answer again should Las Vegas get an NFL team.  We'll still never really know if Las Vegas can support a 6-month, 41-81 game home schedule because the NFL has moved in.

Plenty of cities support both a NFL team and either a NBA or NHL team. A few cities even manage all three.

If Vegas can't support a NHL team along with a NFL team? Maybe they shouldn't have a NHL team. 

 

As for the sentiment of "but we'll never truly know!"? 

Meh. Honestly? I just don't care. I love Vegas, I really do. Live sports has never been a reason to visit though, and whether or not it can support a 41-81 home game schedule isn't a question that weighs on my mind. 

[HedleyLamarr]

2 minutes ago, Gothamite said:

 

There isn't.  

 

You're confusing "I think this is a bad idea and that it will fail" with "I want it to fail."   

 

And frankly, given both Bettman's history and the owner's bungling, there's ample reason to hold that opinion.  

"but if there's one positive here? It's that the money-printing behemoth that is the NFL will hasten the end of the NHL's Las Vegas pipe dream."

 

I don't see how this breaks down into anything else besides "The one good thing about the NFL coming to Las Vegas is that people will spend money on football more so than hockey, which will cause the team to leave Las Vegas.".  How is that statement not in line with "I want the Las Vegas NHL team to ultimately fail."?

[IceCap]

24 minutes ago, HedleyLamarr said:

I don't see how this breaks down into anything else besides "The one good thing about the NFL coming to Las Vegas is that people will spend money on football more so than hockey, which will cause the team to leave Las Vegas.".  How is that statement not in line with "I want the Las Vegas NHL team to ultimately fail."?

Well I answered that.

The NHL in Vegas is a sign of unearned hubris. A sign that they've failed to learn from the mistake that was, and is, the Coyotes. I suspect it will fail because the league's leadership, as currently constructed, has given me no confidence that they can pull something like this off.

 

And yeah. There's a certain amount of satisfaction that comes with watching them fail after they oh so clearly didn't learn from their mistakes the first time.

 

Why the fact that I feel this way after being metaphorically kicked in the nuts by these yahoos year after year surprises or shocks you is beyond me.

[HedleyLamarr]

14 minutes ago, Ice_Cap said:

We've seen the NHL try and fail in the desert before. There's no defending the two decade old money pit in Arizona anymore. 

It doesn't seem like the NHL has learnt from their mistake. Like Arizona they're forsaking a traditional, passionate market for an untested market in the desert. People want to see the NHL punished for their hubris. Especially because it's not even earned hubris. Arizona was, and remains, a disaster.

No, we've seen the NHL try and fail in Phoenix/Glendale.  We have no idea how Las Vegas will respond.

 

We've never seen how any Big Four professional team has fared in Las Vegas.  They're an unknown entity.  Saying that some unknown market is going to fail or be a disaster is nothing more than speculation.

Quote

 

Plenty of cities support both a NFL team and either a NBA or NHL team. A few cities even manage all three.

If Vegas can't support a NHL team along with a NFL team? Maybe they shouldn't have a NHL team. 

 

As for the sentiment of "but we'll never truly know!"? 

Meh. Honestly? I just don't care. I love Vegas, I really do. Live sports has never been a reason to visit though, and whether or not it can support a 41-81 home game schedule isn't a question that weighs on my mind.

 

Las Vegas got the team because it was appealing to have one of the bigger American markets with no sports competition.  When folks showed their support for an NHL team by putting down deposits, there was no talk of the Raiders looking at moving to Las Vegas.  When the expansion rights were granted, there was little shot the Raiders would move to town.

[IceCap]

6 minutes ago, HedleyLamarr said:

Las Vegas got the team because it was appealing to have one of the bigger American markets with no sports competition.  When folks showed their support for an NHL team by putting down deposits, there was no talk of the Raiders looking at moving to Las Vegas.  When the expansion rights were granted, there was little shot the Raiders would move to town.

If you're suggesting that the NHL team's ticket drive convinced the NFL to give Vegas a shot? I'd say that's speculation.

More than anything? Vegas will probably land the Raiders (if they haven't landed them already) because Mark Davis was desperate for a business partner and a new stadium. Oakland had neither. LA potentially had one and a half, if the Chargers passed on their option. LV provided both. I would say that would be the case regardless of what the NHL did.

Frankly? I don't think the NFL pays the NHL much mind. And nor should they.

 

6 minutes ago, HedleyLamarr said:

No, we've seen the NHL try and fail in Phoenix/Glendale.  We have no idea how Las Vegas will respond.

 

We've never seen how any Big Four professional team has fared in Las Vegas.  They're an unknown entity.  Saying that some unknown market is going to fail or be a disaster is nothing more than speculation.

Speculation based off of the league's track record in a similar market.

Only Vegas has more potential downside. A weaker local economy (the gambling industry takes a hit in a recession), no water, and a population of shift workers and out of town tourists whose closest concern about sports includes betting on them. Yes, thinking the NHL will fail in Vegas is speculation, but it's not unfounded speculation given the track record of the league.

 

At this point we're just going over talking points that have been beaten to death already though. You asked your question, and you got your answer. Sorry if it wasn't to your liking.

[dfwabel]

Sorry to take away from the OITGDNHL//Bettman-jacked part of this thread, but ironically Oakland's State of the City address was tonight.

http://www2.oaklandnet.com/government/o/CityClerk/s/KTOP/index.htm

 

So Mayor Libby Schaaf talked about education grants for Oakland to attend college in addition to affordable housing,  police misconduct and no police chief, but Schaaf did not address today's news from Carson City in her speech rather in brief media comments afterwards.

 

And a writer for MarketWatch gives his thoughts.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/raiders-stadium-debacle-is-a-vegas-casino-heist-2016-10-13

 

 

[The_Admiral]

None of that has mattered in Vegas, where unemployment remains higher than the national average, foreclosures are ranked in the top 20 in the country and one in every four houses has a mortgage loan with a balance higher than the value of the house (according to RealtyTrac).

Despite facing down a $400 million state budget deficit that imperils education spending, a Las Vegas committee approved a $1.9 billion stadium plan and rushed it to Gov. Brian Sandoval’s desk. The state Senate has approved it by a 16-5 vote, citing jobs, and now its fate is in the hands of the Assembly.

 

Future generations won't understand how bad all this is because education cuts will make them too dumb to do math.

[dfwabel]

25 minutes ago, the admiral said:

 

Future generations won't understand how bad all this is because education cuts will make them too dumb to do math.

There's the additional $1B for the construction of new I-15 lanes too! That wasn't known at the time of the Marketplace.com publishing.

 

It was bizarre to read the speeches from numerous Nevada legislators who vwoted "Yes", who are leaving office. The senate supermajority got the minimum votes and one state senator was unable to vote due to forest fires. The vote seemed to be a FU to future generations.

Kudos to Jackie Valley of the LV Sun for no bias in the last 48 hours and keeping it straight up.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JackieValley?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

Nevada legislators voting yes are a group of bitches/bastards!

[BBTV]

I don't think the NFL coming to Las Vegas has any impact on the NHL team there.  IMO they don't compete for dollars, because there are many more NFL fans that aren't hockey fans, and hockey fans tend to be extremely loyal (remains to be seen if that's the case in a new desert market.)  There's certainly overlap, but if anything I would think that an NFL team could actually help an NHL team, if it gets the local fan base excited about SPORTS and inspires people that can't access the NFL team to at least check out thet NHL team.

[Gothamite]

Yes, they do compete for dollars, especially when their seasons overlap.  

 

That's the way it goes - teams are always competing within their market for a finite number of dollars, corporate sponsors and attention.   The job of the Vegas NHL marketing team looks like it might just have gotten infinitely harder. 

[IceCap]

14 hours ago, BringBackTheVet said:

I don't think the NFL coming to Las Vegas has any impact on the NHL team there.  IMO they don't compete for dollars, because there are many more NFL fans that aren't hockey fans, and hockey fans tend to be extremely loyal (remains to be seen if that's the case in a new desert market.)  There's certainly overlap, but if anything I would think that an NFL team could actually help an NHL team, if it gets the local fan base excited about SPORTS and inspires people that can't access the NFL team to at least check out thet NHL team.

NFL and NHL season ticket prices aren't that far away from each other, on average. We don't know if that will be the case for Vegas (we have to wait until the Raiders actually move and release their ticket plans to know for sure), but it's not like the NHL is a noticeably cheaper alternative. 

 

As far as fans go...hockey fans do tend to be extremely loyal, but here's the thing. There are no die-hard NHL fans in Vegas yet. The team won't even begin playing for another calendar year. The NHL has no history in the city or state. So any authentic Las Vegas ______ Knights fanbase will have to be cultivated from the ground up. The NHL expected that to be easy, by being the only pro game in town for a significant period of time. Now the Raiders will probably be there within five years, at the most. There won't be enough die-hard "loyal" hockey fans to count on.

 

The NFL won't have to do the leg work the NHL has to do (because every locale in America loves football, and everyone knows the NFL, which you can't say about hockey/the NHL). On top of that? The Raiders are an established brand. A historic team on the upswing again.

The Raiders will face a lot of the same problems the Las Vegas NHL team will face. A rocky local economy, no water, a large population of shift workers and tourists only really interested in gambling and shows, and so on. Thing is, the NFL is almost a better fit. The NHL, compared to the NFL, is a marathon when it comes to attendance (and the NHL is the more gate-driven league). You need to get fans to show up at least 41 times over the course of a season. In the middle of the week. A few afternoon games. During losing streaks where they lose at home night after night.

With the NFL? Each game is an event in and of itself. The Raiders can draw fans from across Nevada in a way the NHL just can't. You can plan an entire weekend in Vegas with the Raiders game on Sunday capping the whole thing off. It's a once a week destination. With the NHL you need a fanbase to show up night after night. The NFL is simply in a better position to weather the issues the LV market brings than the NHL is.

 

Finally? It's not just about fan dollars. It's also local corporate sponsorship. The NHL and NFL teams will be competing for support from the same local businesses. The NFL's always going to get the lion's share of that.

[Wings]

There will be plenty of loyal Raiders fans from Northern & Southern California making the trek to Las Vegas as well. They'll pretty much be a regional team drawing from Nevada, California and Arizona. 

[BeerGuyJordan]

@Ice_Cap For the league to be hell-bent on Vegas, Foley & Co. Prepared themselves about as well as you could hope for, with the location circumstances being what they are (desert locale, transient population, etc.).

 

That being said, I agree that the NFL showing up totally changes things and stacks the odds even further against the Knights succeeding.

[BBTV]

I'll give you competition for corporate dollars - budgets are only so large, and if they're in a situation where they can afford only one, most of the corporations would want their name attached to the Raiders over the Whatever Knights.  This is an area where the Raiders move definitely hurts the Knights.

 

I think the fan bases (the ones that actually attend the games) are separate enough between the two sports  (plus as stated, football is a weekly deal) to not have that much of an impact.  I don't think too many people are sitting at home with junior going "well, we could go to one Knights game this year or one Raiders game, and buy one t-shirt but not the other". 

[Gothamite]

I sure do it.  My family budgets so much every month for discretionary spending, and if I buy Nets tickets out of that amount there's that much less for say, an Islanders game.

 

Now, in large markets that's not a problem.  There's enough people that multiple teams can each have enough people making those decisions in their favor.  But in smaller markets, it really can be an either/or.  Especially when you're trying to create a new culture in the market.

[DustDevil61]

20 hours ago, Wings said:

There will be plenty of loyal Raiders fans from Northern & Southern California making the trek to Las Vegas as well. They'll pretty much be a regional team drawing from Nevada, California and Arizona. 

 

And I may add Utah to an extent (I say "extent" with the Sunday thing), given the state's general proximity to Las Vegas and the fact that a sizable portion of Utahns are Raiders fans or fans of the rival Broncos.

[dfwabel]

20 minutes ago, BringBackTheVet said:

I'll give you competition for corporate dollars - budgets are only so large, and if they're in a situation where they can afford only one, most of the corporations would want their name attached to the Raiders over the Whatever Knights.  This is an area where the Raiders move definitely hurts the Knights.

 

I think the fan bases (the ones that actually attend the games) are separate enough between the two sports  (plus as stated, football is a weekly deal) to not have that much of an impact.  I don't think too many people are sitting at home with junior going "well, we could go to one Knights game this year or one Raiders game, and buy one t-shirt but not the other". 

 

14 minutes ago, Gothamite said:

I sure do it.  My family budgets so much every month for discretionary spending, and if I buy Nets tickets out of that amount there's that much less for say, an Islanders game.

 

Now, in large markets that's not a problem.  There's enough people that multiple teams can each have enough people making those decisions in their favor.  But in smaller markets, it really can be an either/or.  Especially when you're trying to create a new culture in the market.

The NHL in Vegas could face the renewal issue. If Mark Davis intends to play in Oakland for two additional seasons, they start in Las Vegas in the third season of the NHL which is the last year of the three year minimum season ticket packages. It makes winning immediately more of a priority for them as they'll need the renewals.

[Gothamite]

And that would be my concern - coming into a new market, the Deseret Knights will face an initial rush of interest, but will face massive competition for those sports dollars right when most franchises hit their first major challenge.

 

Not that they can't do it, but I still think their job would instantly become much, much harder.

[BeerGuyJordan]

@BringBackTheVet Non-traditional hockey markets pretty much always see an uptick in viewing and attendance once the football season is over. These locales don't have enough dedicated hockey fans, initially, to be able to directly compete for fan dollars. If someone follows football and hockey, in the US, probably 3/4 of those are sating their NFL fandom first, with hockey fitting in, wherever there's room.

 

I know three people who don't even care about hockey until after the Super Bowl. By that point, teams are facing playoff elimination and the post-season is right around the corner. 

 

Nashville saw the same scenario, and I believe it wasn't until two seasons ago that the Preds finally sold out a game on the same day as a Titan's at home. 

 

Regional sports affiliates will always show football over hockey, when there's a scheduling conflict. If the NHL had a decade head start, the concern over the Raiders coming to town would be smaller, but an announcement before the first puck drop in Vegas is definitely cause for worry.