Nashville Predators Being Sold?

[jkrdevil]

Well first off the expansion "grow the game" plan wasn't Bettman's it started under Ziegler. Second expansion into the south and west was and is important to the long term health of the league. That is where the population is going to and a league mus keep up with that or they will be left with teams in dwindling cities that will eventually get to small to support the team. Does Bettman want the team to move? My guess is not. Teams moving paint the league in a negative light. Furthermore with Nashville it is a city that is growing in population and is growing to be more of an economic power in the south. The league might have to have a team there eventually and it is better to get in early before other leagues (which the NHL tried to do) and put down roots. 9 years is not long enough to put down roots. Part of the problem with the NHL in the states is that they have always lagged behind the other leagues when it comes to expanding the game because of conservative forces in the game. They were the last league to expand in the 50's and 60's and were the last to TV. They have only regularly been on network TV in the states for the last 10 years, a time when TV ratings overall started to fall because the expansion of cable and choices the viewer has. Needless to say that was to late. The league needed to expand into the states and get on TV in the 50's. The NHL is finally trying to get ahead of the game with the new media, which is where the future is.

That said I don't know if Bettman will block a move. He admitted that the league thought at the time it was taking a risk with Nashville (thus the clause in the lease). I think he may block a move to Ontario because he also later said he didn't like teams to be two close to each other. Outside of Ontario he may be open to other Canadian cities based on his comments.

With the Pens I think that was more of trying to keep Crosby in a traditional US sports market and him in a division where Crosby goes into the NY market 12 times a year.

[CC97]

Well first off the expansion "grow the game" plan wasn't Bettman's it started under Ziegler. Second expansion into the south and west was and is important to the long term health of the league. That is where the population is going to and a league mus keep up with that or they will be left with teams in dwindling cities that will eventually get to small to support the team.

I think you're over selling this population shift, you make it seem any city not touching a gulf and a pacific will be ghost towns.

Your argument doesn't work with me -- you're saying they need teams in the south because any other market will have too little support in the future... but several current markets (definitely not all) in the south have too little support NOW and even with the success of the team they don't seem to be doing any better... you want to measure the support in a market, look at how they draw when the team is performing.

Tampa seems to be doing good since the cup (although I recently read they were offering crazy ticket packages to beef up sales... but sales ARE sales), Carolina has clearly improved at the box office, and San Jose, although not quite as South, made a higher jump in sales once again.

These are examples of potentially good markets, the fans exist, they are willing to buy tickets.

In Nashville it's hard to find any potential -- what's the problem with the low attendance numbers?

Go through the checklist...

- do they need a new arena?

No, current arena was built like 9 years ago

- is the team consistantly terrible?

Not at all, were near the top of the league all season this year, and were pretty decent last year

- are tickets too expensive?

i'd say no, according to this they've been below the league average in ticket prices for the past 3 seasons

what else is there?

Anyways, I forget what point I was trying to make. But I'm going to post this anyways because I feel like I've probably been typing this for a while.

Go Team Go

[Your Name Here]

Well, like the Chinese say, you've got to take the long view. Hockey is like the cactus of sports; it can thrive in the desert. Consider the Laredo Bucks of the CHL, who draw fans from across the Rio Grande. I'm sure someone thought Los Angeles didn't belong in the NHL. I bet that, if given time, Nashville can become an integral part of the NHL. In ten years, you might not be able to imagine the league without Nashville, Florida, and Carolina.

[HedleyLamarr]

In Nashville it's hard to find any potential -- what's the problem with the low attendance numbers?

Go through the checklist...

- do they need a new arena?

No, current arena was built like 9 years ago

- is the team consistantly terrible?

Not at all, were near the top of the league all season this year, and were pretty decent last year

- are tickets too expensive?

i'd say no, according to this they've been below the league average in ticket prices for the past 3 seasons

what else is there?

Although it doesn't tie entirely to attendance, but...

How is the youth hockey development coming along in Nashville/Tennessee? If it's been constantly growing, then having the NHL in Nashville is vital. The youth hockey players are likely Predator fans, and will be paying customers once they become old enough to buy tickets.

[IceCap]

Well first off the expansion "grow the game" plan wasn't Bettman's it started under Ziegler. Second expansion into the south and west was and is important to the long term health of the league. That is where the population is going to and a league mus keep up with that or they will be left with teams in dwindling cities that will eventually get to small to support the team.

First, to reiterate Chris' point, you're severely overestimating any population shift to the west and south.

Second of all, lets cut out this "we need to 'grow the game' " crap.

Is "growing the game" important? Yes, no doubt. Tampa Bay, Carolina, Atlanta, Dallas, San Jose and Los Angeles/Anaheim have all succeeded as non-traditional pro hockey markets. The teams have established fan bases, and they've developed local interest in hockey, most evident through the growth of youth and high school hockey in their respective regions. You have six non-traditional markets with seven teams that are all on solid ground. I think it's safe to say the sport has "grown" plenty.

So now that the NHL has successfully established franchise (as well as the sport as a whole) in six non-traditional markets the league should focus on consolidating itself. The league has already down well in the non-traditional markets, so there's no need to keep the teams in other non-traditional markets that are struggling. Basically, they've done a great job "growing the game" so there's no need to keep teams in weak markets locked into a region that doesn't care for the game.

Hockey has taken in six expansion markets that were considered risky, I would call that a success. So why try to force-fead struggling markets a game they apparently don't care for? Long story short, moving the Preds out of Nashville won't hurt the "growth" of the game.

Well first off the expansion "grow the game" plan wasn't Bettman's it started under Ziegler.

Think of the "growth of the game" expansion like reforming the USSR. Ziegler was like Gorbachev. He saw what needed to be done, and he had a slow, steady idea of how to get from point A to B. Then along comes Bettman (Yeltsin) who in a fit of opportunistic stupidity throws the slow and steady plan out the window, and starts reforming/expanding almost overnight, shooting past point A all the way to point Q. Everything changed/expanded to quickly, and the system buckled to the point of breaking.

So while Ziegler started the expansion era, Bettman was the one who took it by the horns and overdid the whole the thing.

9 years is not long enough to put down roots.

I beg to differ. The Atlanta Thrashers are a year younger then the Predators, and already they have more corporate support, a larger, more solid fan base, and youth/high school hockey in Atlanta has expanded at a rate that's leaving Nashville's in the dust. So no, 9 years is plenty of time.

Also, think of it in these terms. A 10 year old kid who watched the Preds take the ice for the very first time has moved out of the house by now. If he isn't a fan by now he never will be.

I think he may block a move to Ontario because he also later said he didn't like teams to be two close to each other. Outside of Ontario he may be open to other Canadian cities based on his comments.

Ok, I'll call bs on Bettman's part. He oversaw the Ducks set up shop in Anaheim. If Anaheim/Los Angeles is ok by Bettman's standards, he shouldn't have a problem with a Hamilton or Kitchener-Waterloo/Cambridge team.

[CC97]

Although it doesn't tie entirely to attendance, but...

How is the youth hockey development coming along in Nashville/Tennessee? If it's been constantly growing, then having the NHL in Nashville is vital. The youth hockey players are likely Predator fans, and will be paying customers once they become old enough to buy tickets.

Agreed... apparently youth hockey in NoCal is booming since the arrival of the Sharks and that may be playing a factor in the teams' continuing increase in attendance as those kids back then are now on their own taking their families to games (except for ICS and Puckguy, they just take each other )

[STL FANATIC]

IceCap, you may be right that we could just see cycles of Nashville doing just enough to keep the team, but don't be 100% sure of that just yet.

Again, this was basically a new market in terms of hockey when they moved here (and again whether you think that was right for the NHL today doesn't really matter right now).

They've played 8 seasons (a ninth canceled due to the lockout), 3 with a playoff caliber team, 0 with a playoff series win. It generally takes a winning team to build a fanbase in a market, especially when the sport is pretty much new to the market.

Many would applaud the Nashville franchise for their patience and method of building a contending team. But that strong method meant a lot of years of losing first.

It's going to take more years of contention to continue to grow this fanbase (fan support and corporate support). And I wouldn't rule out that growth from happening, especially as younger fans becomes older fans.

And once that base is built, there's no reason to assume it's just going to collapse upon itself.

As for the ability of Atlanta to have gotten a fairly solid fanbase by now, I'd say there are a few factors.

(1) Markets can just act different. Just because one is ready by year nine doesn't mean another is a failure if it's not.

(2) Atlanta has been exposed to NHL and other high level hockey before. The sport is not new there.

(3) Atlanta is a bigger town with more corporations who could afford to take a "risk" on supporting the new team.

I'm just saying that Nashville still could be a successful market within a handful of years. And that being the case, I wouldn't bail on it just yet.

[OMMF]

Nevermind.

[DEAD!]

Nevermind.

The quote comes to you from a guy in Seattle... coincidence?

[Shylockthejew]

If they do end up playing within the Cambridge city limits I wonder what they'll call themselves. They would be outside of Kitchener-Waterloo, and Cambridge doesn't have the marketability value. Tri-City maybe?

Ontario

Thunder Bay.

lol...don't think we could do it...obviously...

Winnipeg!

[Sir Donald]

Pardon my ignorance, but if Kitchener/Waterloo or Hamilton do get chosen - do the Sens have any say (a la Baltimore Orioles vs. DC Nats)?

We will have to pardon your ignorance on this one... Ottawa is a 5 hour drive from those areas -- it's like asking if New York City has territorial rights over Washington, DC

Toronto has territorial rights over Hamilton, Buffalo is also close by... nobody has rights over Kitchener/Waterloo

Thanks for that. I'm across the Pond so I'm not overly familiar with the area.

Didn't want to think that they decided to move, then have to fight to go in the location they want. But given the Commish's comments the Preds aren't going anywhere...

[Gothamite]

I wouldn't read too much into his remarks. Obviously, unless and until a move has been approved, he'll want to soothe Nashville.

What?s clear to me from meeting with Mr. Balsillie is that he?s passionate about the game, would like to own a franchise and certainly has the resources to do it.

Beyond that, there have been no promises. There have been no predictions. And I think if anybody believes that this franchise is destined to a particular location, that?s more a matter of speculation.

No promises. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the team's current location.

[Sir Donald]

Surely if they can't get the numbers through the door that they want, Basillie has every right to request relocation?

[Ez Street]

The party's over in Nashville, but it's just starting at Cup finals

Nashville, we hardly knew ye.

Owner Craig Leipold bought the Predators for $80 million and could sell the team for $220 million. That's a $140 million profit. A silo full of milk and cheese. Leipold said he lost $70 million during his tenure, so that's a $70 million profit for buying a hockey team in Tennessee and living in Wisconsin.

Imagine not being laughed out of a bar in 1972 if you said, "Someday, a guy who lives in Wisconsin will get an expansion team in Nashville, sell it a few years later and make $70 million." I bet you would have gotten a can of Blatz or Schlitz shoved up your left nostril out of sheer stupidity.

So, as Leipold prepares to leave with his $70 million bag of money, Predators season-ticket holders are out tens of thousands of dollars in tickets, parking, bad beer and hideous uniforms. It's the same old story.

And look who is back in town. Our boy, Jim Balsillie! After agreeing in principal to buy the Predators from Leipold this past week, it is seems likely that he will work hard to get his team and move it to Kansas City, Las Vegas, Winnipeg or Ontario.

He can help his boy Phil Anschutz get his team in Kansas City, get a state-of-the-art arena built for him in Vegas with the huge potential for revenue stream or bring a team to Canada and receive hero worship. One of those things will likely happen, whether it's after next season or in the future. Bet on the Preds leaving after the 2007-08 campaign. That was the plan in Pittsburgh, and now that's the plan in Nashville.

If paid attendance in Nashville does not average at least 14,000 next season, and the city can buy all of those tickets, the Preds can pay an exit fee of $18 million to get out of their arena lease and leave Music City USA. Balsillie has $18 million in his glove compartment. Also, the Preds had fewer than 9,000 season-ticket subscribers despite the success of the team, which amassed 110 points this season (tied with Anaheim for third best in the NHL).

Next season, the Predators will not be the third-best team in the NHL. I would suspect nearly all of their key unrestricted free agents will walk. Paul Kariya, Kimmo Timonen, Peter Forsberg and Scott Hartnell will sell their homes now and look to move elsewhere. Forsberg will just check out of the local Hampton Inn.

There is too much uncertainty with the team. Will they be in Nashville one more season? Two? Three? Will they find a way to leave in July?! Who knows? We do know that losing those four players will change the Predators' place in the standings. The Predators can then bring up the financial losses and shed more payroll by trading existing contracts for draft picks. ( The Preds do not have a first-round pick this June.)

The message will then be clear that the Predators want to move. Neither the fans nor the city will continue to shell out hard-earned money in an attempt to play a game of financial chicken with a billionaire. "Let's all buy Predators tickets, watch them lose to Columbus 5-1 and keep the Preds in Nashville!"

Bucci believes that time is running out for Predators fans in Nashville. It will be a lost year.

Listen, I don't care what Balsillie does with the team. Nashville has shown it probably isn't an NHL city. Fewer than 9,000 season tickets for a 110-point team might be good for arena football or indoor lacrosse or the WNBA, but the NHL isn't like any of those leagues. There are other markets that will produce much larger season-ticket numbers. I've been writing for years that I'm all for another team moving to Canada. That's where the NFL-like passion is, and certainly Ontario can support another NHL team. Kansas City is the favorite because it has a rent-free arena ready to go and Balsillie can hook up his boys in the Anschutz Entertainment Group (AEG).

If the arena in Winnipeg is NHL caliber in terms of amenities and revenue, it has a shot. Otherwise, Balsillie has to get going and get an arena deal soon for it to be built in time for the 2008-09 season. Perhaps, he already has the framework in place. One way or another, things will likely take shape soon.

Whatever the case, turn out the lights Nashville, the party's over.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs2007...&id=2884769

[Sir Donald]

Is Vegas a real contender here? Can't see it myself.

[DDR]

I don't see why there needs to be debate on this. Ontario seems like the logical choice. I'm all for Winnipeg and Hartford nostalgia, but I believe both of those are wishful thinking. Ontario would seem to satisfy most everybody not in Manitoba. It satisfies the league by moving to an untapped and growing market with a lot of interest a high chance of success. It satisfies the purist fans who will only accept a team in a Canadian market or a city that lost a team. And it keeps the league from considering another Southern US market (Houston), a scandal waiting to happen (Vegas), a city that couldn't hold onto its team before (Kansas City), or keeping it in a failing market with casual interest at best (Nashville). All jokes about Chicago deserving an NHL team aside, I believe it will be Ontario, and I'm all for it.

[Ez Street]

I don't see how Bucci ties Bald silly with AEG....

I just don't see it.

[HedleyLamarr]

There is too much uncertainty with the team. Will they be in Nashville one more season? Two? Three? Will they find a way to leave in July?! Who knows? We do know that losing those four players will change the Predators' place in the standings. The Predators can then bring up the financial losses and shed more payroll by trading existing contracts for draft picks. ( The Preds do not have a first-round pick this June.)

Is Jim Balsillie the real-life version of Rachel Phelps?

[EatSleepJeep]

I don't see why there needs to be debate on this. Ontario seems like the logical choice. I'm all for Winnipeg and Hartford nostalgia, but I believe both of those are wishful thinking. Ontario would seem to satisfy most everybody not in Manitoba. It satisfies the league by moving to an untapped and growing market with a lot of interest a high chance of success. It satisfies the purist fans who will only accept a team in a Canadian market or a city that lost a team. And it keeps the league from considering another Southern US market (Houston), a scandal waiting to happen (Vegas), a city that couldn't hold onto its team before (Kansas City), or keeping it in a failing market with casual interest at best (Nashville). All jokes about Chicago deserving an NHL team aside, I believe it will be Ontario, and I'm all for it.

Saying that Kansas City isn't a viable hockey city because the Scouts left town is just as absurd as saying Denver isn't a viable hockey city because the Rockies left town.

[Ez Street]

KC is just as viable as any other market. Put a good team in there and they will thrive. Put a dud expansion team in there, and its iffy.