NFL Merry-Go-Round: Relocation Roundelay

[The_Admiral]

Even with the aforementioned teams at their nadirs, they were up against three of the most ardent fanbases in the league, and in the case of the Packers, in sports. When you frame it as "hey, remember the L.A. Rams? They moved sorta nearby and they're really good right now, so stop liking that symbol of the provincial midwest you like so much!", it really looks like a hard sell, Kurt Warner notwithstanding. The Colts don't really have a regional fanbase either; they have the immediate environs and people around America who love Peyton Manning. If they didn't get the BarnDome built, they'd be sniffing around Los Angeles as much as anyone after a few down years.

Maybe St. Louis just isn't an essential part of an NFL map, owing to some peculiarities of the market and adjacent ones. Maybe that's okay.

[Cosmic]

In the last couple pages, you've only cited "some rumblings that Kroenke might privately fund a stadium" and speculation that he'd be interested in giving a hometown discount. I've offered a specific example of a team buying out its lease in order to move.

You are entitled to your opinion. I am entitled to say that I don't see that opinion fitting the actual facts.

It is unprecedented for an owner to let a municipality off the hook for a stadium they were contractually obligated to build. On the other hand, it is far more common for teams to buy or otherwise leverage their way out of the remaining few years of a lease in an outdated stadium.

This isn't about what I want to happen, but what I see as the reality in Missouri.

I've pointed out how the owner said he intends to keep them here. I've pointed out how other teams are in worse situations that may allow them to beat them to LA. I've pointed out how their lease doesn allow them to leave for nearly four years. I've brought up those rumblings yes.

But what's yours? "Other owners have done it". Ok. Where has been stated tha this owner has said he would? I'm not saying I'm right. I'm not saying you're wrong. But if mine is laughable then so is yours.

What's he supposed to say? "Yeah, you got me... I'm just biding my time until L.A. is ready." You cannot believe anything the owner says; it's not even worth reporting on. Like when a team has a player that everyone knows in on the trading block and they say that they're not going to trade him.

[Gothamite]

Or the "dreaded vote of confidence" in a manager or coach they've already decided to fire.

"Intends to" keep them in St. Louis is actually pretty mild language in this case. Lots of wriggle room in that.

[McCall]

There's also been no inclination whatsoever that he intends to get out of the lease early. That's not much time to try an get a new stadium. But is enough time for LA to get another team in there. I'm not saying they're a lock to stay, but they're not a lock to move either, at least before the end of the lease. That right there might ending up keeping them in St. Louis. There are other teams who may not have to wait to move. I definitely say they're contendors to move to LA, but I wouldn't put them at the top. It's easier for some of the others to get there before them.

[Gothamite]

Perhaps, but no more likely NFC team. And that's an important distinction.

I'll concede that he hasn't yet indicated a willingness to get out of the last years of the lease. He hasn't made a committment to the market, either. Still, we've seen what those assurances are worth - Weaver has repeatedly and strongly committed to Jacksonville, but we've all pegged the Jags as being halfway packed.

At best, we can't read anything into Kroenke either way. So in the absence of evidence on which way he'll lean, I'll go way out on a limb and say that the relatively commonplace, sound business decision is far more likely to occur than the never-happened-before "spend my own money" one.

Rich people don't get or stay rich by spending money that somebody else is legally required to spend. Not $10 for lunch, and not hundreds of millions for a new stadium. St. Louis can't afford to cross its collective fingers and hope that Kroenke's lining up to make an exception.

[rvrdgsfn]

The council in L.A. approved.

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nfl/story/_/id/6847826/la-council-passes-framework-deal-nfl-venue

[Gothamite]

Good news for LA, bad for St. Louis, Jacksonville and San Diego.

I'll give AEG this; the Roski group had a strong head start, but the downtown stadium has been coming on strong, catching up step by step.

[NorthStar74]

So will we see some NFL teams jockeying to get to LA soon? I wonder how long till then?

[The_Admiral]

So will we see some NFL teams jockeying to get to LA soon?

No, Los Angeles is gonna build a stadium and nobody is going to try to move there.

The extortions in San Diego, Jacksonville (though what more do you really do there, honestly), Minneapolis, and St. Louis should begin, oh, tomorrow?

[rams80]

It's going to be a pretty half-hearted extortion in St. Louis.

[DG_ThenNowForever]

How in the world Buffalo is fourth on a list of potential teams to move is beyond me. I'm glad Ralph Wilson bathes in cryogenic fluid each night.

[The_Admiral]

For whatever it's worth, the "official" Farmers Field hit list is Chargers, Jaguars, Rams, Raiders, and Vikings. I don't think they're trying to lure the Bills anymore. Maybe because they have one foot in Toronto already. Which is lame.

[pmoehrin]

For whatever it's worth, the "official" Farmers Field hit list is Chargers, Jaguars, Rams, Raiders, and Vikings. I don't think they're trying to lure the Bills anymore. Maybe because they have one foot in Toronto already. Which is lame.

Toronto is such a huge market the NFL would be stupid not to go after it and despite what the Bills ownership says eventually they will move full time to Toronto, the only question is when. Rich Stadium is very outdated by NFL standards, but its not like Toronto has anything better to offer so for now they're stuck there. Once the Bills can get a stadium built for them up in Toronto though, they're gone.

The team I think that will move to LA will be either Jacksonville or St. Louis. Minnesota dispite their stadium problems is too good of a market to let go of. and I think eventually they'll work something out. Same goes with San Diego. The Raiders I think will look into partnering up with the Forty Niners before moving to LA, but its hard to predict what Al Davis will do so so who knows what will happen there. He might move them to LA after a team already comes to LA. Trying to figure out what he's thinking is an excercise in futility.

The Jags and Rams just don't draw and I don't see much hope for them drawing either, Jacksonville especially. St. Louis I think could still be salvaged. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, because they've had a rough go in terms of win/loss record. Jacksonville though has no excuse. Good team, good stadium, marketable players, but college football is king. People care way more about how the Florida Gators do then they do the Jaguars and it will always be that way.

I think the Rams would be the better option for LA to have given their history there but the Jaguars would probably be the team in most need of moving. I'd give the slight edge to Jacksonville but I think its going to be one of those two teams.

The only team I'm surprised they don't go after is the Falcons. They want out of the Georgia Dome and they don't have the greatest fanbase in the world either. They're winning now and that's enough to give them support but if they aren't, Falcons are usually dead last in attendance. Probably won't get them but I'd at least try and maybe they already did are simply moving on.

[The_Admiral]

Toronto is such a huge market the NFL would be stupid not to go after it

Except all those people don't particularly care about the NFL. Good idea, Gary.

[TBGKon]

My gut tells me that 2 teams will probably make their way to the Golden State. If LA is in one conference but not the other, that conferences TV package will be considerably more. By having a team out there in both conferences, the TV packages will be evened up.

That said, I have a feeling that the Jags and Rams will be yours two new LA teams. I think the Jags name could stay, but use some kind of Aztec imagery and colors. Rams name could stay, as they have a history in LA, or they could start anew.

[pmoehrin]

Toronto is such a huge market the NFL would be stupid not to go after it

Except all those people don't particularly care about the NFL. Good idea, Gary.

Thing is with a market of that size, you don't need a large percentage of the population to really be interested.

Whether or not the NFL will be able to get full potential out of Toronto remains to be seen, but I'm not going to say don't try at all.

[Gothamite]

My gut tells me that 2 teams will probably make their way to the Golden State. If LA is in one conference but not the other, that conferences TV package will be considerably more. By having a team out there in both conferences, the TV packages will be evened up.

That said, I have a feeling that the Jags and Rams will be yours two new LA teams. I think the Jags name could stay, but use some kind of Aztec imagery and colors. Rams name could stay, as they have a history in LA, or they could start anew.

That's what I've been saying for some time, with the minor exception that I'm not sure it's particularly worth keeping the Jags identity. They may wish to start from scratch with that one.

[JQK]

Word i've been hearing is that the Rams, Jags and Vikings leases are going to make it nigh impossible for those teams to re-locate.

That leaves the Chargers and Raiders...

[STL FANATIC]

For what it's worth, I heard (and I wish I could find a source, but it was just a tweet from a guy I trust had his own source) that the Rams are close and thus expected to sell out every game this year. Season Ticket renewals were at 94%, and they had sold 4,000 new season tickets as of July 17th--BEFORE the lockout ended. No doubt that last number has jumped since.

Imagine that. A genuine effort to win, and the fans are flocking back. I've been saying that for years regarding the Blues and now the Rams. It's proven time and time again, that St. Louis WILL support their teams and well, so long as there's a real effort displayed by those teams.

We'll see. I know you think McCall and I are pie in the sky, but if it were legal, I'd bet a large chunk of change the Rams are here well beyond 2015, and in a new stadium by 2025.

[Gothamite]

Word i've been hearing is that the Rams, Jags and Vikings leases are going to make it nigh impossible for those teams to re-locate.

You heard wrong.

The Vikings' lease expires at the end of this upcoming season.

The Jags have the longest term left on their lease (Weaver extended it a couple years ago), but even that has an opt-out price.

The Rams have an out-clause in their lease. The city of St. Louis has until next February 1 to present the Rams with their plan to replace the Dome or renovate it to elevate it to the top 25% in the NFL. St. Louis also has to show the money at the same time. The Rams then have until May 1 to accept the deal or make a counteroffer. The two sides will then go to arbitration, and if no deal is reached the lease converts to year-by-year. So if St. Louis isn't able or willing to pony up the better part of a billion dollars by February, Kroenke just has to wait them out a year or two. Even if an AFC team signs a relocation contract tomorrow, he could be sharing the new stadium by the time the first pass is thrown in LA.

So wherever you heard that, it isn't true. The Vikings can leave in January and the Rams a year or two from now.