Division 1 College Conference Realignment

[LMU]

[Guest]

45 minutes ago, chcarlson23 said:

Are these additions to the B1G just for football, or the entire athletic departments?

 

Oregon and Washington are bringing all sports from what I've read.

[Gary]

1 hour ago, LMU said:

If Wassu and Oregon State stick around its more like 2 Pac

[TrueYankee26]

OREGON AND WASHINGTON ARE OFFICIALLY BIG TEN MEMBERS IN 2024-25! 

Update: Oregon's announcement.

Update: Washington's announcement.

 

Edited August 4, 2023 by TrueYankee26

[DustDevil61]

1 hour ago, Gary said:

If Wassu and Oregon State stick around its more like 2 Pac

I think what’s left of the Pac-12 (whoever may still be on board) will merge with the Mountain West Conference, possibly taking up the Pac [Insert correct number of members here] moniker, or some combination of Pacific-Mountain Conference.

 

I jokingly tweeted #USUToThePac12 when Utah State’s football program was finally looking good. Little did I know that I could very well be right, though certainly not in the way any of us envisioned.

 

Anyways, Larry Scott is cackling on his yacht somewhere.

 

 

[kolob]

22 minutes ago, DustDevil61 said:

I think what’s left of the Pac-12 (whoever may still be on board) will merge with the Mountain West Conference, possibly taking up the Pac [Insert correct number of members here] moniker, or some combination of Pacific-Mountain Conference.

 

I jokingly tweeted #USUToThePac12 when Utah State’s football program was finally looking good. Little did I know that I could very well be right, though certainly not in the way any of us envisioned.

 

Anyways, Larry Scott is cackling on his yacht somewhere.

 

 

 

I had the same thought about a merge keeping the PAC name, but at this point just kill it and invite WSU and OSU to the Mountain West.

[BBTV]

How did we go from "Big Ten has begun preliminary talks to potentially add Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford on WEDNESDAY to Oregon and Washington being officially admitted on FRIDAY?

 

 

The articles made it seem like some Big 10 officials were going to start possibly thinking about pondering the possibility of maybe reaching out to other teams, and two days later it's a done deal?  This had to have been in the works for a year or more.

 

[GDAWG]

 

[aawagner011]

1 hour ago, BBTV said:

How did we go from "Big Ten has begun preliminary talks to potentially add Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford on WEDNESDAY to Oregon and Washington being officially admitted on FRIDAY?

 

 

The articles made it seem like some Big 10 officials were going to start possibly thinking about pondering the possibility of maybe reaching out to other teams, and two days later it's a done deal?  This had to have been in the works for a year or more.

 

You just answered your own question. If you’ve been following realignment, Oregon and Washington have been rumored to go to the B1G for probably 6-12 months now. The conference already did their homework and the last couple days were just a formality once other dominoes began to fall.

[BBTV]

6 minutes ago, aawagner011 said:

You just answered your own question. If you’ve been following realignment, Oregon and Washington have been rumored to go to the B1G for probably 6-12 months now. The conference already did their homework and the last couple days were just a formality once other dominoes began to fall.

 

Yeah, it's just funny that the article that was posted here says this (emphasis mine):
 

"The Big Ten has begun exploratory discussions about expanding membership to 18 or even 20 teams, industry sources have told Yahoo Sports. The schools being considered are Oregon and Washington if the league adds two schools, and Cal and Stanford if it wants to move to 20. All four institutions are currently members of the Pac-12.

 

The discussions are in the very early stages, sources caution. No decision, including on whether to expand or stay put at 16 teams, has been made or is considered imminent."

 

Whoever wrote that article should be fired immediately, and Yahoo Sports should lose all credibility (if it has any... I've never read it other than this article.)

[BBTV]

The only thing I know about college sports is what I read on these forums, so forgive me if this is common knowledge, but I just gave espn.com a read and it said that Notre Dame's deal with the ACC stipulates that if they decide to join a conference for football, it has to be the ACC, so any talk about Big Ten is wasted breath.  Also, ACC's deal with its schools seems to be iron clad (and pretty draconian... but the schools agreed) so none of them are going anywhere.

 

That would leave the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and ACC as the big-4 conferences, with the PAC-4 dissolving, and no good reason for anyone to take Stanford, Cal, WSU, or Oregon State.  Not sure if it was a lack of foresight on their end, or if they were just never attractive to any conference anyway.

[FiddySicks]

1 hour ago, GDAWG said:

 

And there it is. The death knell to any interest I had left in college sports. It had been waining since I graduated a decade ago (I’ve grown firmly into the opinion that if you’re a big college sports fan and aren’t a college student, or at least around that age, you’re legit weird and need to reevaluate your priorities), but this officially kills it. College sports is officially dead on the west coast. Long time coming, if you ask me. 

[aawagner011]

11 minutes ago, BBTV said:

The only thing I know about college sports is what I read on these forums, so forgive me if this is common knowledge, but I just gave espn.com a read and it said that Notre Dame's deal with the ACC stipulates that if they decide to join a conference for football, it has to be the ACC, so any talk about Big Ten is wasted breath.  Also, ACC's deal with its schools seems to be iron clad (and pretty draconian... but the schools agreed) so none of them are going anywhere.

 

That would leave the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and ACC as the big-4 conferences, with the PAC-4 dissolving, and no good reason for anyone to take Stanford, Cal, WSU, or Oregon State.  Not sure if it was a lack of foresight on their end, or if they were just never attractive to any conference anyway.

Everything I have seen tells me that the ACC deal is locked down for the next decade plus. Not only do those schools have massive buyouts to break the contract, they would also forfeit their media rights because they have been granted to the conference. Also, while ESPN holds rights to the ACC, they have little incentive to try to force a move in the background because they are essentially broadcasting FSU and Clemson games at a discount versus what they would cost under the SEC or B1G contracts. Those schools can raise pitchforks and whine all they want, but they will be stuck for a very long time. That’s the problem with signing such an incredibly long contract. The market will pass the ACC by (already has) and widen the gap again when the SEC and B1G are up for renegotiation before the ACC’s deal is up.

 

I am less knowledgeable about Notre Dame’s deal but I would imagine it is less iron clad seeing as they are not a full member.

[BBTV]

7 minutes ago, aawagner011 said:

I am less knowledgeable about Notre Dame’s deal but I would imagine it is less iron clad seeing as they are not a full member

 

per espn, "It also remains a partial member of the ACC in football and has a contract with the league stating that if the Irish were to relinquish their independence, it would be for the ACC."

 

According to other sources, their deal runs concurrently with the rest of the conference's rights deal, which goes through 2036.

 

They obviously don't have the same rights issues since they have their own deal, but would still likely have to pay a huge penalty to break it - and right now, there's no reason for them to since they can still qualify for the playoff and still have a lucrative broadcast deal.

 

Of course, if they even hinted at breaking it, the ACC would probably panic and bend over to appease them.

[aawagner011]

24 minutes ago, BBTV said:

 

per espn, "It also remains a partial member of the ACC in football and has a contract with the league stating that if the Irish were to relinquish their independence, it would be for the ACC."

 

According to other sources, their deal runs concurrently with the rest of the conference's rights deal, which goes through 2036.

 

They obviously don't have the same rights issues since they have their own deal, but would still likely have to pay a huge penalty to break it - and right now, there's no reason for them to since they can still qualify for the playoff and still have a lucrative broadcast deal.

 

Of course, if they even hinted at breaking it, the ACC would probably panic and bend over to appease them.

This is the kicker. Notre Dame can get out without forfeiting media rights and only paying an exit fee. While that exit fee would be initially expensive, it would be recouped within 2-3 years if they go to a conference. This report states exit fees are 3x annual payouts. For Florida State, that was estimated at $120m. Surely Notre Dame’s is less as a partial member. Supposedly their NBC contract pays them $22m per year. I don’t know what the ACC payout is to Notre Dame, but if Florida State was $40m ($120m/3), let’s put Notre Dame somewhere in the $20-25m range as a partial member. They are probably earning around $40-50m combined between their NBC and ACC deals. But that ACC deal will remain locked in for the next 13 seasons. That’s diminishing returns. Notre Dame can do the math and see the deals in both the SEC and B1G. They would earn substantially more over the length of their deals by aligning with one of those conferences. Perhaps they could re-up their NBC deal, but NBC is now carrying B1G football. Notre Dame is no longer being treated as the exclusive college property on NBC that they have enjoyed for years. The B1G on NBC is competition to Notre Dame because as we have seen with the PAC 12, broadcasters only have certain amounts of money to allocate for the sport. I feel like for as much as FSU has publicly complained lately, Notre Dame is in the position FSU wishes they were in. Notre Dame can act and has mobility due to the way their ACC deal is structured. FSU is stuck for a long time.

[Gary]

 

[TrueYankee26]

 

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, Gary said:

 

 

it's just insane how quickly this all materialized. I understand it's been rumored for awhile, but it all just hit the fan over like 2 weeks

[aawagner011]

3 minutes ago, solvetica said:

 

it's just insane how quickly this all materialized. I understand it's been rumored for awhile, but it all just hit the fan over like 2 weeks

I think a lot of these schools (and conferences) saw the writing on the wall and did their homework over the last year to prepare for all possibilities. After the UT/OU and USC/UCLA dominoes fell, it became a race between the PAC 12 and Big 12 to lock up their media rights deal. The Big 12 acted quickly by snatching up UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, and Houston. While those moves didn’t bring the “wow” factor, they certainly brought stability and gave the Big 12 new life. They beat the PAC 12 to the punch and we have since seen that networks have finite dollars they are willing to allocate to college sports. The PAC 12 realized there were no major broadcasters willing to give them a deal with the money to compete with the other conferences. The inability to secure a media deal was what killed the PAC 12. Because their contract only runs through the 2023 season, schools saw an easy exit with no penalty and then it was every school for themself. Colorado triggered the rest of the dominoes by fleeing for the Big 12, Oregon and Washington were big enough brands to justify a move to the B1G, and from there the Arizona schools and Utah had to find safe haven in the Big 12. It all happened very fast, but it was very predictable by how the PAC 12 mismanaged its negotiations and waited until the very last year of the contract. They should have resolved this 3-4 years ago.

[SeaTac]

It'll be fun 30 years from now when they all get sick of each other and break off further into different conferences.