Division 1 College Conference Realignment

[WestCoastBias]

This is all so stupid...

[BBTV]

21 minutes ago, PrimalCookie said:

Yeah, I was expecting Cal and Stanford to get at least some interest due to their academic prestige and Bay Area market, although I'm still doubtful the ACC would see any monetary benefit from adding them (which is what all this is really about). As for Oregon State and Washington State, it seems they have no other options but the Mountain West. They'll join the fairly short list of schools that used to be in a power conference and no longer are: UConn, USF, Tulane, Rice, and SMU are the others as far as I'm aware.

 

Edit: Also Sewanee, Chicago, Idaho, and Montana, but those were all prior to WW2.

would adding new teams be a way of reopening negotiations with espn since that’s now more markets than they originally bargained for? If so, it could be a blessing and a curse since any chink in the iron-clad armor of the current rights deal could open the door for FSU and whoever else to either renegotiate  their deal or leave altogether. 

[CS85]

I would have infinitely less issue with all of this if the conferences took the numbers and geography out of their names.

 

You can't even go with individual names at this point because if you named the Big 10, say, as the Nagurski or Grange conference, Illinois or Minnesota may leave for greener pastures in a decade, so why bother?  Just sign each conference name over to major brands in 25 year contracts.  Coca-Cola, Disney, Netflix, etc.  Whore it all out, top to bottom. 

 

[crashcarson15]

12 hours ago, PrimalCookie said:

Yeah, I was expecting Cal and Stanford to get at least some interest due to their academic prestige and Bay Area market, although I'm still doubtful the ACC would see any monetary benefit from adding them (which is what all this is really about). As for Oregon State and Washington State, it seems they have no other options but the Mountain West. They'll join the fairly short list of schools that used to be in a power conference and no longer are: UConn, USF, Tulane, Rice, and SMU are the others as far as I'm aware.

 

Edit: Also Sewanee, Chicago, Idaho, and Montana, but those were all prior to WW2.

If there is a monetary benefit, it either comes through:

1. The creation of a late night TV slot for the ACC to offer to ESPN; the SEC isn't going to be offering up 10:30 ET kickoffs, which means Big XII games are the only inventory ESPN could have for the late slot
2. A potential ability to re-negotiate terms of the existing agreement (which could be bad for the league, but also could be a chance for ESPN to secure Florida State if they're concerned about the 'Noles breaking the GoR and going to the Big Ten)

Stanford and Cal to the ACC probably makes more sense than any move to this point to be honest, given the context. It's more stability for the smaller schools in the ACC that probably aren't getting a B1G or SEC invite down the road (which may be most of the league), and the academic-minded schools could love the idea of getting a jump-start on an FBS mini-Ivy to carry them through the inevitable Clemson and FSU departures. Plus, the travel isn't really their concern — most basketball/volleyball/tennis/etc. teams would probably make one trip to the Bay Area every other year to play both schools, which at that point is more a novelty that could actually help recruiting than a chronic issue.

 

Obviously, the travel would be a nightmare for Stanford and Cal, but any scenario at this point is a nightmare for them and keeping a seat at the big kids' table might be worth the sacrifice vs. having to put their non-revenue sports somewhere else (and at least you can fly direct or direct+bus to a lot of the league from SFO).

[MJWalker45]

8 minutes ago, crashcarson15 said:

and at least you can fly direct or direct+bus to a lot of the league from SFO).

This is the biggest issue that is actually easiest to resolve. How many of the SEC schools have the ability to fly direct to wherever they need to go? Pretty much all of them. Same thing for the LA schools, Arizona schools, Big XII, and almost any Florida school. The ones that aren't so lucky are those that are in the Group of 5 and some of the smaller Power 5 schools. Baseball, basketball, and other sports already operate on the road for most of the season, so the only difference is how many more air miles these teams will earn. UCLA, USC, Washington, and Oregon baseball and softball will probably work the same way as minor baseball league teams do, with big blocks of home and away games to keep the costs down, while the rest of the Big Ten will rotate up and down the west coast when those teams are at home. 

[BBTV]

Again, for the smaller sports, couldn’t the conferences just make the “western league” (and other similar regional ones), which would be made up of teams from multiple conferences, with a title that’s sanctioned by them? The schools would remain in the B1G or Big 12 or whatever, but they’d play a mostly non-conference schedule and compete for a title that’s sanctioned by the conferences, but not a conference title. 
 

The conferences got what they wanted for football and basketball - would they really care about doing something like that? It’s not like each conference has different rules (like a DH vs pitchers hitting) or large media contracts for most of those other sports. 

[OnWis97]

26 minutes ago, BBTV said:

Again, for the smaller sports, couldn’t the conferences just make the “western league” (and other similar regional ones), which would be made up of teams from multiple conferences, with a title that’s sanctioned by them? The schools would remain in the B1G or Big 12 or whatever, but they’d play a mostly non-conference schedule and compete for a title that’s sanctioned by the conferences, but not a conference title. 
 

The conferences got what they wanted for football and basketball - would they really care about doing something like that? It’s not like each conference has different rules (like a DH vs pitchers hitting) or large media contracts for most of those other sports. 

I have to think something like that is going to happen. Football is unique in playing once a week and almost entirely on Saturdays.  This makes no financial (which is what matters) sense for sports that play more often and any time of the week; particularly the majority of sports, which are non-revenue. I have to think it's at least a bit more expensive for Washington to travel to Maryland than to Oregon. I don't really know the scheduling formulas for non-revenue sports, but I would not be surprised if the focus for some schools becomes non-conference matchups. For example, is there any way that Washington could only play 10 conference tennis matches even though Ohio State plays 20? I know that messes with the integrity of the conference race, but there probably aren't many people that'll care.

 

I'm really curious to see how this works out for basketball. I'm guessing mid-week games will focus on shorter travel (e.g., Oregon to Washington, USC, UCLA) but even then, they'll have to make some trips into the central time zone. But I'd bet those four teams have home-and-home every year, whereas they might play Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, etc. about once a year and have rare games vs. Rutgers, Penn State, and Maryland. Outside of football, it might almost become an unofficial three unbalanced divisions.  This makes me think the Big Ten should have grabbed Cal and Stanford; they'd secure the Bay Area and get something resembling balance with rough divisions of 7, 7, and 6.

 

What a mess. Example # 4,692 of how none of this is about the student athletes.

[LMU]

As a theory, which I'm not sure would be possible, could the entire Mountain West theoretically disband and immediately join the Pac-12?  Unless the NCAA/CFP takes action it would give the MWC teams access to the CFP automatic bid and Pac-12 network infrastructure while retaining their current TV deals.

[BBTV]

5 hours ago, LMU said:

As a theory, which I'm not sure would be possible, could the entire Mountain West theoretically disband and immediately join the Pac-12?  Unless the NCAA/CFP takes action it would give the MWC teams access to the CFP automatic bid and Pac-12 network infrastructure while retaining their current TV deals.

 

If the teams left the Mountain West (negotiated a settlement or just left, whichever works), any deals signed with the MWC as a single entity (separate from the teams) would still be attached to it, and I would assume that any network deal has language in it for what happens if teams leave.  My complete-uneducated guess is that MWC inc. would be liable for a ton of money to pay whoever owns its rights, and eventually file for bankruptcy.

 

A more-likely scenario is that some actual merger of entities is negotiated, and there's either language in the MWC's deals that account for that possibility, or they get bought out, or renegotiate something, which may be that the former MWC teams are still beholden to the CBS / FOX deal till '26, where they'd then be included in any PAC# deal.  I'd assume CBS/FOX would be cool with that, even if Apple or whoever wants the now-severely-less-valuable PAC# rights probably wouldn.t

 

As for access to CFP, I don't think that's even on the table right now.  I read something on the SEC guy that's part of the board that runs the CFP, and they're re-evaluating things now.  Not that any of this is "fair", but it wouldn't be "fair" to give a bunch of jabroni schools automatic access to something that equally-jabroni-level schools don't have, simply because they adopted a famous conference name.

 

 

Contracts are made in good faith, and I'd assume there's language in the CFP constitution that covers events like this (or there should be).  I can't see any scenario in which the PAC# maintains its status as a "Power" conference, regardless of how many non-power schools hop on board.

 

[McCall]

The College Football Playoff, honestly, shouldn't be affected. When it goes to 12, it will be the top 6 ranked conference champions (regardless of power/group of 5 status) plus the top 6 ranked non-Champion schools. If anything, it gives the Group of 5 (6) a guaranteed TWO spots in the playoff instead of just one, as now there will only be four power conferences for 6 champions spots instead of 5 for 6.

[DCarp1231]

[aawagner011]

5 hours ago, McCall said:

The College Football Playoff, honestly, shouldn't be affected. When it goes to 12, it will be the top 6 ranked conference champions (regardless of power/group of 5 status) plus the top 6 ranked non-Champion schools. If anything, it gives the Group of 5 (6) a guaranteed TWO spots in the playoff instead of just one, as now there will only be four power conferences for 6 champions spots instead of 5 for 6.

I disagree. The conferences are no longer equal. If the PAC 12 somehow survives and merges with the Mountain West, that conference is not on similar footing to the SEC, B1G, ACC, or Big 12. Similarly, there is a drop between SEC and B1G competition and the ACC and Big 12. I like the idea of using a hybrid system similar to the BCS for seeding and rewarding strength of schedule. In the current era of realignment, the idea of guaranteed conference winners getting top seeding is outdated. I don’t like realignment but the conferences no longer being equal is a reality that needs new solutions.

[heavybass]

If anything the new Pac 12 would be a conference 4 grouping instead of a power 5 team.

[DCarp1231]

The Power 5 conferences should just say “:censored: it” and adopt a relegation system

[McCall]

41 minutes ago, heavybass said:

If anything the new Pac 12 would be a conference 4 grouping instead of a power 5 team.

Conference 4? You (currently) have Power 5 and Group of 5 as there are 10 conferences in FBS. With the loss of the Pac's "Power" status, you either go to Power 4/Group of 6 or Power 4/Group of 5 if the Pac dissolves altogether.

[McCall]

1 hour ago, aawagner011 said:

I disagree. The conferences are no longer equal. If the PAC 12 somehow survives and merges with the Mountain West, that conference is not on similar footing to the SEC, B1G, ACC, or Big 12. Similarly, there is a drop between SEC and B1G competition and the ACC and Big 12. I like the idea of using a hybrid system similar to the BCS for seeding and rewarding strength of schedule. In the current era of realignment, the idea of guaranteed conference winners getting top seeding is outdated. I don’t like realignment but the conferences no longer being equal is a reality that needs new solutions.

Doesn't matter. It's the Top 6 ranked conference champions. There are only going to be 4 power conferences which means only 4 power conference champions and 2 from the Group of 5/6. Are you arguing it's unfair to the power conferences? Because more than likely, all or the majority of the top 6 ranked non-champions will still be from the power 4. The Group of 5 are just now guaranteed 2/12 instead of 1/12. I think there's a distinct difference, thus why I favor a new division level for the power conferences, but as the FBS stands, this is a pretty fair set-up.

[BBTV]

The CFP people could easily say that the structure was put in place to allow for one non-Power school to be guaranteed access.

 

Therefore, they could use that same logic to say that now it's only the top five conference champions, plus 7 other schools.

 

 

[aawagner011]

47 minutes ago, McCall said:

Doesn't matter. It's the Top 6 ranked conference champions. There are only going to be 4 power conferences which means only 4 power conference champions and 2 from the Group of 5/6. Are you arguing it's unfair to the power conferences? Because more than likely, all or the majority of the top 6 ranked non-champions will still be from the power 4. The Group of 5 are just now guaranteed 2/12 instead of 1/12. I think there's a distinct difference, thus why I favor a new division level for the power conferences, but as the FBS stands, this is a pretty fair set-up.

This argument assumes all things are equal. College football in 2024 is as unevenly weighted as it has ever been in history. Like it or not, the SEC and B1G will hold about 80% of the teams that can realistically win national championships. Beyond those two conferences, there is a big drop off in talent and overall quality (just look at the roster composition with recruiting information). We are going to give auto bids to four other conference winners (two of which will come from conferences like the MAC, AAC, Mountain West, Conference USA, and the Sunbelt). All this will do is result in more games like we just saw in the national title game. The current CFP proposal makes zero sense with the recent conference changes.

[SeaTac]

Oregon State & San Diego State to the Big 12 could be the next shoe to drop. Keep an eye on it. 

[McCall]

15 minutes ago, SeaTac said:

Oregon State & San Diego State to the Big 12 could be the next shoe to drop. Keep an eye on it. 

Where are you hearing Oregon State?