2014 MLB Season Thread

[Sport]

So, i just realized that the Padres are the only thing keeping this from being the first year where every California team in the playoffs. why do the Padres have to suck every year, because that would be insanely fun.

That would mean that both NL wild cards would have to come out of the West, which is highly unlikely even if the Padres were good this season.

If the season ended today, the Angels and Mariners would play for the AL Wild Card out of the West. It's possible.

In this year's American League, it's very possible considering how surprisingly mediocre the AL East teams' records have been and how weak the AL Central has been (as usual). However, a strong NL Central accompanied with the Braves, Nationals and Marlins all contending in the National League makes two wild card berths in the NL West much more unlikely than it is in the AL West (like I said, even if the Padres were contenders, which they're not, so there's really only two teams contending in that division and they're both likely to earn playoff berths. It's almost guaranteed that one WC will go to an NL West team and the other to either an NL East or NL Central club.)

3 NL Central teams made the playoffs last year. Wouldn't surprise me if it happened again this season.

[FiddySicks]

I'd be much happier with another Bay Bridge World Series

[dbadefense1990]

I'd be much happier with another Bay Bridge World Series

That's if the Athletics can ever get past Detroit in an elimination game. A big if, I should add.

[Sport]

And the Giants were just swept at home in a four game series by the Reds, who are now in second place. 5 straight, 8 of 9, 14 out of the last 18. I like this feeling.

[Kramerica Industries]

In this year's American League, it's very possible considering how surprisingly mediocre the AL East teams' records have been and how weak the AL Central has been (as usual). However, a strong NL Central accompanied with the Braves, Nationals and Marlins all contending in the National League makes two wild card berths in the NL West much more unlikely than it is in the AL West (like I said, even if the Padres were contenders, which they're not, so there's really only two teams contending in that division and they're both likely to earn playoff berths. It's almost guaranteed that one WC will go to an NL West team and the other to either an NL East or NL Central club.)

It's shocking, really. Just last year, the AL East was still, top-to-bottom, the best division in baseball; four teams with 83+ wins and ( ) the eventual World Series champion. It wasn't vintage AL East because, by virtue of baseball's increasing parity, the teams weren't as good as those AL East battles from a few years ago were (I'm talking circa 2008-2011 for the purposes of those being three-team races), but it was still a tough division to play in and a tough division to win games against.

Just a year later, and none of these teams are even on a 90-win pace. Toronto leads this division and they are on an 87-win pace right now. I've been using a 90-win projection model for the purposes of looking at what each team will need to do in order to realistically make the playoffs, but if none of these teams wins 90 games, then the projection model is rendered worthless and things blow wide open.

I've elaborated on this elsewhere and I don't feel like writing an expose' about it again, but, suffice it to say, the AL East winner is probably going to be the team that screws itself the least hardest. Seriously. And because there is no dominant, unbeatable team in the American League, I really wouldn't be shocked if an AL East team can make a run, either. I don't expect it; Oakland and Detroit run this league until further notice, but in this new age of baseball parity, anything's possible.

[MEANS]

I'd be much happier with another Bay Bridge World Series

That's if the Athletics can ever get past Detroit in an elimination game. A big if, I should add.

The A's problem is they construct a talented enough team to make the playoffs but not talented enough to win in the playoffs.

[FGM13]

I don't understand how the Jays are still tops in the division. They haven't been too impressive of late.

[Kramerica Industries]

I elaborated on this quite a bit on Saturday night. Feel free to read if you don't mind that I took something of a Yankee fan POV while writing it.

You know what has been the weird feeling for me, personally, this year? A game like this last season would've likely resulted in quite a bit of distress, relatively speaking. Why doesn't it this season? I'm not a Zen baseball practitioner; I think that stuff is basically the Serenity Now way of watching sports and doing it cold turkey is not sustainable. Instead, I'm pretty sure it has something to do with the fact that the AL East is not good, at ALL, this year.

The way I see it, I've been using a 90-win trajectory model. This isn't exclusive to this new age of baseball, I guess, but 90 wins is what I perceive to be the baseline win total to realistically reach the postseason. You look back to last year, it actually took 91 to reach the play-in game (TB), in '12 it took 93 (BAL and TEX) but, whatever, lets stick with rounded numbers here. What would each team need to do in order to reach 90 wins?

Toronto (45-38, .542) --> 45-34 (.569)

Baltimore (42-38, .525) --> 48-34 (.585)

New York (41-38, .519) --> 49-34 (.590)

Boston (37-44, .457) --> 53-28 (.654)

craps and giggles

Tampa Bay (34-49, .410) --> 56-23 (.709)

oh boy we've got a problem here, don't we? None of these teams are playing on a 90 win pace as it is and, worse yet, the best team W-L in this division right now has already had what could be described as their "run"; Toronto had a 25-7 (.781) stretch, during most of May and into early June.

Now, the question arises - do any of these teams have that type of run in them? Maybe not at the level of .781, but a stretch spanning roughly 1/6 of the season of .700-.720 type ball? For some context, the best team in baseball this season, undisputedly, has been Oakland. Best run difference thanks to having the most runs scored and fewest runs allowed (no wonder they have the best run difference). At 50-30, they are on a 100-102 win trajectory. But what's their win percentage? .625. For Boston especially, trying to get to 90 wins is going to be really difficult. But what gets me is the rest of these teams.

Toronto has to play 27 points better to reach 90 wins.

Baltimore has to play 60 points better to reach 90 wins.

New York has to play 71 points better to reach 90 wins.

(Tampa Bay has to play 301 points better to reach 90 wins. HAHAHAHAHA. I'm not doing a good job hiding my glee at Tampa's surprise horrible season.)

We're talking approximately half the season for the games played department; this isn't some haynecked projecting we're doing in the middle of May.

So, to bring this all back to the original point, I suppose what I'm really saying is that it's hard to really get too annoyed at these losses, even halfway through the season and irritating as tonight was and to Boston of all teams, because these teams in this crappy division are going to lose a lot of games this season. The Yankees are a .519 win percentage team 79 games into the season, yet they're tied in the loss column with Toronto. What the hell? I'm not ready to declare the 2014 AL East this generation's version of the 1972 NL East or 1987 AL Central but, yikes, it's horribad. I'm going to be inclined to think somebody reaches 90 wins because I can't think of a terribly high amount of times where a division winner has been sub-90 wins (although the 2005 NL West and 2006 NL Central do come to mind; wow did the National League suck a decade ago), but, honestly, I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not entirely irritated because, as long as this team doesn't veer out of control, they might just be able to snatch the division by virtue of the other teams all screwing themselves instead. And, lets bear in mind, the Wild Card race is also pretty wide open. Anaheim looks legit, sitting on a 45-34 record and held back by virtue of being in Oakland's division, but that other wild card spot? Look, who's afraid of Seattle or Kansas City being out-and-out better teams than the Yankees? I'm not convinced. Could be some ignorance and blinders because, hey, once I start writing for more than a couple hundred words sometimes my objectivity goes flying out the window, but the fact is that those teams go through the same inconsistent spurts as the team we root for does. Seattle just lost five in a row recently, and then promptly won eight of nine to follow up on that. Kansas City won ten in a row, and now has gone 2-7 since, most of those games at home.

The reality of the AL, as it is these days, is that there are a whole bunch of teams that, if you didn't put names on the uniforms, you literally wouldn't be able to tell them apart from each other. Hodge-podge baseball. Yay.

And after Sunday's results, it looks even worse, since Toronto, Baltimore, and New York all lost (...again).

[FGM13]

I also agree with Kramerica that this Rays cluster of a season is awesome as someone who has an intense, possibly irrational hatred for them.

[masterchaoss]

Dodgers now alone in first place. Hard to keep that much talent down all year.

[OaklandIsBack]

The A's problem is they construct a talented enough team to make the playoffs but not talented enough to win in the playoffs.

I've seen this said many times and it is just flat out wrong. The last two seasons they've had to face arguably the best pitcher of this generation twice in a 5 game series

[MEANS]

so that proves my point, you're team wasn't constructed to win in the playoffs. You actually beat Verlander in game 2 last year, and lost in game 5.

[Sport]

The Reds end their five game winning streak by only giving up one hit and losing to one of the worst hitting teams of all-time* 1-0.

*the Padres hit .171 in June which is the single worst month for any team in the live ball era. The 2003 Tigers? better. The 2012 Astros? better. 1962 METS???? Better. That's crazy.

[ninersdd]

Yet they went 2-1 against the Giants this month

[Sport]

Reds sweep the Giants in 4 and then follow that up by getting swept in 3 in San Diego. Story of this season right there.

first time I've used this this season: FReds

[Raysfan12]

Don't look now, but the Rays are only 9.5 games back from the AL East and 14-9 since June 9 when they brought that one seminole medicine man to the clubhouse.

[Kramerica Industries]

They've gone 14-7 since June 11 and are still -11. They won't continue to play .666 ball, or anywhere near enough of a pace to win 85 games, for the next three months.

Besides, with all due respect, "only" 9.5 games sounds hilarious in writing.

[NJTank]

The Mets in a nutshell

[Tigers6884]

The Tigers have been finding exciting ways to win lately, which reminds me of why I fell in love with baseball.

[HedleyLamarr]