NFL Merry-Go-Round: Relocation Roundelay

[rams80]

You're just putting a LOT more into my statement about training camp then there was. You essentially called BS on the statement that excitement for the Rams is up. I mentioned the training camp attendance (the stat is that it's up about 70%) as evidence that excitement is indeed up.

And it is.

That doesn't mean this city is ready to paint all it's buildings navy and gold. It means excitement about the Rams is up this year. And nobody is patting themselves on the back over it. It was a stat that made the media, and it was relevant to our conversation.

The Rams are probably at least a playoff year away from not having a good chunk of tickets available in the weeks leading up to a game. That doesn't mean they won't sell by the time game week rolls around. I certainly didn't claim anything to the contrary.

Also, while a truly bad stadium deal would hurt St. Louis (but note that not every potential stadium deal is necessarily bad), this city has essentially nothing in common with Glendale. St. Louis has taken its licks over many, many decades for many reasons. It appears to finally be heading in the proper direction. One thing it is not, is heavily in debt. The city has largely been fiscally responsible. It is nowhere near Glendale.

I'm a homer and an optimist. But I'm not being an extremist. You're flirting with being one in the other direction, though.

I was hinting more at the "it's only been 19 years, give it time, there's potential here rhetoric" which does sound suspiciously like what is uttered in regards to the Quixotes. The team has had bad attendance for most of its existence, is facing an existential crisis as far as remaining in St. Louis is concerned, yet had a pretty good season last year and looks to be turning the corner, (which was the criteria last year for improving attendance) and your response is, "We need a playoff team." WHAT THE ?! Suppose the team makes the playoffs this year, "We need a Super Bowl Champion?" You could be a long time waiting for that. Honestly, is the belief that Jebus loves you and would never let anything slightly bad happen to you or things you profess to like such a core component of the Hilljack Mizzourah culture that "hey we should probably start going to games before the team leaves" never even occurs to St. Louisans or those outside the city? That they should just take everything the Rams PR flunky says at face value despite it also being taken from the classic, "we're thinking about leaving" playbook?

And even more importantly, you don't need 19 years to evangelize the gospel of football in Middle America. If you're still struggling to build a viable core at this point in time, that means you likely lost that critical first generation of fans to the other teams in the region. Which is pretty evident to be the case. So should the Rams piss away another 15-20 years swimming upstream trying to recover a local fanbase that is already gone? Or should they stop throwing good money after bad?

[The_Admiral]

Honestly, is the belief that Jebus loves you and would never let anything slightly bad happen to you or things you profess to like such a core component of the Hilljack Mizzourah culture that "hey we should probably start going to games before the team leaves" never even occurs to St. Louisans or those outside the city?

The Hilljack Mizzourah culture I observed mainly consisted of smoking, Chinese food, and smoking. Cigarettes are so cheap there! So is booze! Grand Theft Auto: Vice City should have been set in Fulton.

[rams80]

Honestly, is the belief that Jebus loves you and would never let anything slightly bad happen to you or things you profess to like such a core component of the Hilljack Mizzourah culture that "hey we should probably start going to games before the team leaves" never even occurs to St. Louisans or those outside the city?

The Hilljack Mizzourah culture I observed mainly consisted of smoking, Chinese food, and smoking. Cigarettes are so cheap there! So is booze! Grand Theft Auto: Vice City should have been set in Fulton.

Ironically despite their love of Jebus it appears that adult entertainment is the only growth industry for this culture.

[STL FANATIC]

Again, you're putting more to my words than I'm saying, or not listening to the whole of what I'm saying.

The 19 years thing in and of itself sounds like crap, right? But the marketing to nobody outside of the metro area and the usual being awful add some context to that. They haven't lost the local fan base by any means, they just haven't cemented it. It's still there to be had.

The notion that they've had generally bad attendance is also false and unfair. They've had fine attendance. Of course when they're awful, and they usually have been, it's harder to draw. But your not talking about half-full stadiums year in and year out. There are at least a handful of cities who struggle much more with attendance.

As far as me changing my requirements, you're just not listening to what I said. I didn't say the team must make the playoffs to have good attendance. I said it will probably take a playoff year before the fans have virtually sold out the whole season 2 months in advance. (That's essentially what you complained about. You criticized the fan base for having a lot of tickets available to home games in August.)

I expect attendance to be good this year. But I don't expect tickets to be sold many, many weeks ahead of time. A competitive team last year has fans wanting to go to games. A playoff team will make the Rams a hot ticket.

That's not a sliding scale on my part. That's reality. And it's a fair statement. And it's not a particularly bad reflection on the fan base for feeling that way. There are much more established fan bases who function the same way.

And that's about all I can respond to because you lost me in the middle with some of the top diatribe. Don't understand where you're going with the Hilljack Mizzourah stuff, but I know generalizing large swaths of people with what I assume is supposed to be a funny label is a good strategy in debates, so perhaps you're winning this one.

[The_Admiral]

Well, as I've said before, with the exception of 1999-2004, St. Louis has either had bad teams or no team, with the baseball team's various hinterlands belonging to other NFL teams. It's hard to build on that, and I don't know how much more time it warrants. I don't want to get too Butterfly Effect here, too if-my-aunt-had-balls, but take away that Greatest Show On Turf window and in all likelihood this team would have been gone as soon as Rachel Phelps died.

That said, I think the Rams have pretty much weathered most of the storm in terms of football-ops, and if they can get a new stadium, they'll be okay. They won't be a cornerstone of the league, but it's not as if you have to be one in the NFL.

[IceCap]

Really, the 19 years thing rubs me the wrong way. It's VERY Coyotes-esque. "They've only been here for a decade and a half, WHY WON'T YOU GIVE THEM A CHANCE?"

You claim that the fanbase hasn't been salted, that it's still there for the taking. People don't work like that. If the local team hasn't made an effort to make them care they're going to move on to other teams. Not sit around saying "I wish I could be a Packers fan, but I can't because the Rams may some day decide that I, as a potential paying costumer, matter." If the market hasn't been fully taken advantage of in 19 seasons it's not unreasonable to say that the situation is critical. Maybe not "they might as well move now" critical, but critical none the less.

Now you could say that LA is notorious for fairweather fans, and that would be fair. Thing is there's more money to be made in LA with a lukewarm fanbase then there is in St. Louis with a lukewarm fanbase.

As for rams80's "Hilljack Mizzourah" comments, maybe he was a bit harsh but the underlying point was valid. If St. Louis fans are so confident that nothing bad (sports wise) will befall the city that's home to "the greatest fans in baseball" that they can't be bothered to show up to Rams games then the Rams just might move. Both Kroenke and the city of St. Louis would be better motivated to make it work in St. Louis if the St. Louis faithful showed up in force to support the team. "We won't show up in force unless they make the playoffs" is, again, very Coyotes-esque. When your team is potentially moving you as a fanbase are in no position to start making demands regarding showing up to games.

On the topic of your position here? Yes, you're an optimist, but you have to understand something. The fact that we're even talking about this means that the Rams leaving is a real possibility. The whole "local media/sources say the Rams staying is a sure thing!" argument is lame and counter-productive. If it really was a sure thing we wouldn't be having this discussion. It's fine to fight the good fight and no give up hope until the moving trucks arrive, but it's quite another to deny that moving to LA is a serious possibility. Like it or not it is, at this juncture.

[STL FANATIC]

I'm pretty much backing out for now because this isn't productive, but let me say this, because it's hugely important to why what you and Rams80 are saying isn't particularly right.

There is a MASSIVE difference between the "lack of support" shown in St. Louis towards the Rams and the lack of support shown towards the Coyotes in Glendale. MASSIVE.

You're essentially talking about a non-existant fan base in Glendale/Phoenix. In St. Louis you're talking about a non-premier, non-diehard fan base. The stadium sells out most games. The ones it doesn't are close enough to a sellout that the team or sponsors take the initiative to buy the rest to avoid the blackouts. And the games are mostly full. The team is very profitable.

The Coyotes in Glendale/Phoenx =/= the Rams in St. Louis. It's a loaded and inaccurate analogy.

To your last point, Ice, I'd recommend reading through my posts in this thread. While my optimism that the Rams are staying in St. Louis is clear, I've engaged this conversation in a very open way (other than maybe one span of frustration probably about 2 years ago now). So much so that most times I present something on the issue, I always leave with the caveat similar to "this is nothing concrete, and we still don't know what anyone is thinking; we'll know more in a year" or some such thing.

Of course the Rams to LA is a possible move. I've conceded that over and over again. I don't think it's going to happen. I'd place money on that, in fact. But when you don't have a long-term lease, and there's another appealing market floating out there, anything is possible.

I think Goth, who has typically been the most active with me in this thread, would even attest to my acknowledgement of that possibility.

[IceCap]

I'm pretty much backing out for now because this isn't productive, but let me say this, because it's hugely important to why what you and Rams80 are saying isn't particularly right.

There is a MASSIVE difference between the "lack of support" shown in St. Louis towards the Rams and the lack of support shown towards the Coyotes in Glendale. MASSIVE.

You're essentially talking about a non-existant fan base in Glendale/Phoenix. In St. Louis you're talking about a non-premier, non-diehard fan base. The stadium sells out most games. The ones it doesn't are close enough to a sellout that the team or sponsors take the initiative to buy the rest to avoid the blackouts. And the games are mostly full. The team is very profitable.

The Coyotes in Glendale/Phoenx =/= the Rams in St. Louis. It's a loaded and inaccurate analogy.

I never said that the fanbase in St. Louis was as non-existant as the Coyotes' in Glendale. Just that the arguments of "it's only been 19 years" and "we'll only show up in force if they make the playoffs" is very reminiscent of the Coyotes' fans claiming "it's only been 15 years" and "we'll show up when they make the playoffs have an owner." Of course the Rams have a stronger local fanbase then the Coyotes. It's just that the arguments being thrown about for why the Rams don't have a stronger fanbase are eerily similar to the ones coming out of Glendale.

Also the fact remains that it doesn't take much to have a stronger fanbase then the Coyotes. 19 years and the market hasn't been fully taken advantage of? That's a problem.

To your last point, Ice, I'd recommend reading through my posts in this thread. While my optimism that the Rams are staying in St. Louis is clear, I've engaged this conversation in a very open way (other than maybe one span of frustration probably about 2 years ago now). So much so that most times I present something on the issue, I always leave with the caveat similar to "this is nothing concrete, and we still don't know what anyone is thinking; we'll know more in a year" or some such thing.

Of course the Rams to LA is a possible move. I've conceded that over and over again. I don't think it's going to happen. I'd place money on that, in fact. But when you don't have a long-term lease, and there's another appealing market floating out there, anything is possible.

I've read through this thread. Your posts included. I've seen you make the claim that local media and/or sources are sure that a deal will be worked out.

If you're a believer that the LA is absolutely going to get a current NFL team, the options are basically the Chargers, the Rams, perhaps the Bills, and none has given any real indication they're interested in moving to LA.

That said, I do consider it likely. And more and more it's not just that he's tied to St. Louis, it's that there currently aren't any viable alternatives.

I swear, you could find reason to believe on the Titanic.

This is hardly that. The general consensus in St. Louis and now really in the national media is that the Rams aren't particularly likely to move.

Burwell says he's not remotely surprised that the negotiations have been turned over to the governor and that he in fact wrote last year (I don't recall, but I also don't doubt) that something like this would play out. He says he had a source in/near the government that described the negotiations with the CVC as little more than a preseason game. A bunch of players who would have no real role in the final outcome, but had to play out the process to get to the meaningful part.

But if you're looking to understand why folks like me have so much confidence that the Rams are staying in STL, this more or less encompasses all the elements of that case.

http://www.101sports.com/2013/07/15/rams-stadium-and-relocation-prospects-not-as-they-seem/

Nothing is off the table, but it just doesn't appear the Rams have anything in their plans but figuring something out in St. Louis.

I could go on. These go beyond "I'm optimistic." The picture you're painting is that the Rams staying in St. Louis is a sure thing. And, like it or not, it isn't.

[CubsFanBudMan]

Bah... L.A. threats are empty. Sure Farmers Field seemed real, but it was a mirage.

People give the Rams-to-L.A. rumors more credibility for nostalgic reasons. The Vikings went year to year -- and their stadium imploded -- the Chargers have been year to year for a while, and the Raiders are in much worse shape in a city that might soon no longer be major league. And none of them are moving, apparently. It's a game of musical chairs, and yeah, maybe St. Louis is left without a chair, but undoubtedly the NFL prefers to stay in its existing markets.

The pattern seems clear to me. Maybe it didn't until the Vikings process played out, but the same can be done in St. Louis.

Also, for fun, check out USA Today's For The Win blog today. A new study ranked the most loyal fanbases. St. Louis is 22nd, right behind Kansas City and above (in order) Seattle, Buffalo, Miami, San Fran, etc. ... Cowboys are 1st, Raiders are last. FWIW.

http://ftw.usatoday.com

[STL FANATIC]

The key difference your missing is the "showing up". Rams fans already show up. They don't fill the stadium to 100% capacity (I'd guess it's around 85-100 depending on the games) every single game. And they don't sell out the season a month in advance.

But Rams fans are already interested an already go to games. My statement about needing a playoff team was entirely based on tickets being a hot item and selling early, not about getting fans to come to games. And that's why there's a big difference between anything related to the Coyotes and anything related to the Rams.

Yes, the reasons put forth for why the fan base hasn't reached full potential are similar to some extent. But that's being mis-read as well.

For starters, my statement about 19 years had little to do with whether that was enough time to develop a fan base. It had everything to do with the fact that most of the surrounding teams have been in place for decades upon decades are the most traditional in the league. So when you start talking about markets like Springfield, MO or downstate, IL, of course those places aren't going to jump to the team in St. Louis. Those markets aren't St. Louis and most fans already have their allegiances. The only shot at getting people in markets like those to jump is to win for extended periods of time, and the Rams have done the opposite.

And that point had more to do with the influx of visiting fans at the dome than anything else.

The Rams don't NEED those markets to be successful, it'd just be a positive if they got some of them. Nineteen years is valid reasoning there.

But for the city of St. Louis and the metro region? I agree. Nineteen years is plenty of time in and of itself. The Rams aren't new to St. Louis.

But here's the thing: there IS lots of interest in the Rams. And tons of interest in football. The Rams don't need to build a fan base from the ground up, they just need to give people a reason to spend their time and money on the Rams.

I think that's been misunderstood. The fan base is already here. The interest is already here. They just need give the last chunk of skeptical/bandwagon fans a reason to really buy-in.

I think the situation has really lost the proper context in this discussion. This isn't a fan base on life-support, it's a solid fan base that has the potential to be really good if the organization can gain its trust.

[STL FANATIC]

I could go on. These go beyond "I'm optimistic." The picture you're painting is that the Rams staying in St. Louis is a sure thing. And, like it or not, it isn't.

Not really. The picture I'm painting is that the Rams remaining in St. Louis is the most likely scenario right now. And it is.

But I always leave the door open that it could go the other way because of course it could. Presenting a confident viewpoint and supporting it with the bits of information out there is not the same as pretending there is only one option.

I'd be happy to see your list of information that paints the opposite picture. To my knowledge, that information doesn't exist. We know the Rams don't have a long-term stadium/lease deal, and we know there is some varying degrees of momentum to get a team in LA. That makes the Rams to LA a possibility, but there have been no developments that I'm aware of that make it anything approaching a likelyhood. On the contrary, there have been developments and leaks of information that breed the confidence I have, and I've shared those. (Just as I've shared any developments I hear about the Rams stadium issue.)

[The_Admiral]

Would you say that the Cardinals do need the outlying areas that the Rams don't have?

[STL FANATIC]

Need? Not to survive. To be one of the premier fan bases? Certainly.

Again, having those areas is one reason KC & CHI are what they are. It'd be great if STL could get themselves in on it. But it's not necessary for survival.

Now, that said, it may be more critical to a baseball team with 81 games a year to have fans coming in from outside the metro region on a regular basis.

[tigerslionspistonshabs]

Bah... L.A. threats are empty. Sure Farmers Field seemed real, but it was a mirage.

People give the Rams-to-L.A. rumors more credibility for nostalgic reasons. The Vikings went year to year -- and their stadium imploded -- the Chargers have been year to year for a while, and the Raiders are in much worse shape in a city that might soon no longer be major league. And none of them are moving, apparently. It's a game of musical chairs, and yeah, maybe St. Louis is left without a chair, but undoubtedly the NFL prefers to stay in its existing markets.

The pattern seems clear to me. Maybe it didn't until the Vikings process played out, but the same can be done in St. Louis.

Also, for fun, check out USA Today's For The Win blog today. A new study ranked the most loyal fanbases. St. Louis is 22nd, right behind Kansas City and above (in order) Seattle, Buffalo, Miami, San Fran, etc. ... Cowboys are 1st, Raiders are last. FWIW.

http://ftw.usatoday.com

That list is the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen. I'm really trying to not be a homer, but Lions at 28??? Behind JACKSONVILLE??? They've sold out every game as long as I can remember and they've been absolutely dismal for the past....forever. To justify my non-homerism...Seattle at 23?

[bosrs1]

Any word on the Raiders situation? They're still having attendance issues in the preseason despite reducing capacity of the Coliseum by over 12,000 seats artificially and the proposed initial financing plan for the "Coliseum City" seems to have collapsed according to Zennie Abraham. Which doesn't bode well for the pitifully small chance they had of staying in Oakland to begin with.

[ninersdd]

More sewage issues in Oakland:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/18/sewage-issues-strike-again-at-oakland-coliseum/

[dfwabel]

National Football Post on Hollywood Park site:

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Exclusive-Hollywood-Park-attracts-interest-from-NFLagain.html

[MadmanLA]

National Football Post on Hollywood Park site:

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Exclusive-Hollywood-Park-attracts-interest-from-NFLagain.html

As a former resident of that particular area of Inglewood, it does intriguing, but it's still the same ol' song. However, I do think that this has a better chance of becoming reality than Farmers Field or the Grand Crossing project in Industry.

[hbgoo1975]

If we don't get an NFL team, the stupid soccer team called the Chivas may have a stake at Hollywood Park center for some team sponsored store or something. And the city's fans will still be on the Cowboys payroll. And I do not mean the Boys are moving!

[Evil G]

Chivas USA should die in a hole.