2010 MLB Season Thread

[TopCat]

Tank is killing me. Absolutely killing me. This is why no one takes anything he says seriously. He's just a wacky sports fan! Aharharhar!

[Lights Out]

I don't think anyone is saying wins for a pitcher are "worthless."

Exactly. They're a pretty good method of determining how good a team's offense is, but they mean nothing to the pitcher accruing said record and therefore shouldn't keep Felix away from the Cy Young.

[NJTank]

Tank is killing me. Absolutely killing me. This is why no one takes anything he says seriously. He's just a wacky sports fan! Aharharhar!

Why because I take wins seriously? Because I'm not buying the new age mantra wins don't matter? Wins do matter, if they did not matter how come every 300 game winner is in the HOF? How come 20 wins is considered a great accomplishment? I'm not asking for much, but can we please make sure any starter that receives this award at least win 15 games?

Not too long ago 15 wins was not even enough.

We have watered down so much of this sport, why would we want to water down the Cy Young, by accepting a .500 pitcher to win the Cy Young.

[Lights Out]

Wins do matter, if they did not matter how come every 300 game winner is in the HOF? How come 20 wins is considered a great accomplishment?

Previous inductees, old methods of thinking. Sabermetrics have only become popular in the past ten or so years.

[NJTank]

Well forgive me for living in the past, I prefer the old way of thinking, and I hate sabermatrics.

[Lights Out]

If you're going to call something "evil," please at least spell it right - it's sabermetrics.

[rams80]

Well forgive me for living in the past, I prefer the old way of thinking, and I hate sabermatrics.

Why? I'm sure it will give you a new and different way to point out Minaya's gross incompetence?

[NJTank]

Well forgive me for living in the past, I prefer the old way of thinking, and I hate sabermatrics.

Why? I'm sure it will give you a new and different way to point out Minaya's gross incompetence?

Well even Stevie Wonder can see Omar's incompetence.

[Sport]

Well forgive me for living in the past, I prefer the old way of thinking, and I hate sabermatrics.

Is it because you don't understand them?

[Lights Out]

Just think of how much worse Omar would be if he ignored sabermetrics completely. The Mets would probably lose 90+ games every year.

[NJTank]

Well forgive me for living in the past, I prefer the old way of thinking, and I hate sabermatrics.

Is it because you don't understand them?

No its because I think they are phony. The stat that bothers me most is Quality Start. I don't think 7 IP and 3 runs allowed is a quality start if you leaving trailing. How did those three runs score. Did you team give you a lead only for you to give up a run the following inning?

I've learned to accept OPS somewhat, but I think too much is still placed on slugging. I rather see what some does in clutch situations with RISP. You can have a good OPS, but crap the bed every time the game is on the line. For me I want to see them bring back the Game Winning RBI, that was a stat that mattered.

Look at the Mets this year they have 0 Grand Slams, they had just one grand slam last season. What percentage of someone's slugging comes with the bases empty?

Another stat that annoys me is WAR, to quote Edwin Starr WAR what is it good for? How can you really measure wins over replacement, will the game situations be the same with a made up minor league replacement?

[Lights Out]

You do realize there are far more sabermetrics out there besides Quality Starts, OPS, and WAR, right?

[NJTank]

You do realize there are far more sabermetrics out there besides Quality Starts, OPS, and WAR, right?

Yes but few of them are any better.

Late Inning Pressure Situation may be the only valuable stat it has.

Here is one reason I don't like Sabermatrics, it reminds me of the QB Raiting. Nobody knows how to calculate the QB Raiting, but a NFL game is so fast it does not matter.

Baseball's pace is why stats have always played a big part, and growing up I could calculate a ERA fast, and that was the most complicated stat. I think Sabermatrics is making baseball too complicated and separating it from the common fan, and that is why I think it ultimately hurts the game.

[mania]

In a small side note from literally the dumbest debate I have ever seen on this forum (and every single piece of the idiocy is coming from one side), the Rangers, in what has basically been an inevitability since... July or so, clinched the AL West today for the first time in 11 years.

It was one of the most bizarre seasons I can remember as a fan of the team, and perhaps in general.

1 - The Rangers weren't the first team to be stewards of MLB (the Expos at the end of their time in Montreal come to mind), but with the ongoing bankruptcy and eventual auction mid-season, I can't think of anything quite like it. I have heard that there was a filmmaker shooting a documentary about the entire process, I can't imagine it won't make for compelling stuff.

2 - The injuries and the oddities. Going into the season, if you had told me that Scott Feldman (who, despite all of his peripherals (OMG SABRMETRICS!!!!) saying he was due for some regression) and Rich Harden would both be practically :censored:ing useless, I'd have told you that it was not a playoff team. Instead, a converted reliever, a former flameout prospect who found new life in Japan, and Cliff Mother:censored:ing Lee, who I was absolutely, 100% sure the Rangers had no shot in acquiring via trade were the pieces of the puzzle that fit perfectly. Arguably grabbing Vladamir Guerrero off the scrap heap and getting a great season, despite a really bad slump after the all star break. Losing 3 all star players, the three best hitters on the team, for months at a time. At the beginning of the season, I genuinely felt that this was the best team in the AL West, but if you had told me the injuries/effectiveness issues that would have happened, I never would have guessed that I'd be trying to order division champions gear now.

This is one of the most fun years I can remember as a baseball fan. My favorite team literally has contenders for every major award in baseball, and although a sweep of said awards no longer looks likely, I still imagine Hamilton's the front-runner for MVP, Feliz definitely has a shot at ROY, Lewis and Guerrero are probably the front runners for CPOY, and Washington and Daniels are I would imagine absolute locks for Manager and Executive. It's a young team at it's core supplanted by a few veterans in the right places, and finally with a dedicated ownership group and money behind it, I see absolutely no reason they won't have a competitive window for the next several seasons.

[Sport]

In a small side note from literally the dumbest debate I have ever seen on this forum (and every single piece of the idiocy is coming from one side), the Rangers, in what has basically been an inevitability since... July or so, clinched the AL West today for the first time in 11 years.

It was one of the most bizarre seasons I can remember as a fan of the team, and perhaps in general.

1 - The Rangers weren't the first team to be stewards of MLB (the Expos at the end of their time in Montreal come to mind), but with the ongoing bankruptcy and eventual auction mid-season, I can't think of anything quite like it. I have heard that there was a filmmaker shooting a documentary about the entire process, I can't imagine it won't make for compelling stuff.

2 - The injuries and the oddities. Going into the season, if you had told me that Scott Feldman (who, despite all of his peripherals (OMG SABRMETRICS!!!!) saying he was due for some regression) and Rich Harden would both be practically :censored:ing useless, I'd have told you that it was not a playoff team. Instead, a converted reliever, a former flameout prospect who found new life in Japan, and Cliff Mother:censored:ing Lee, who I was absolutely, 100% sure the Rangers had no shot in acquiring via trade were the pieces of the puzzle that fit perfectly. Arguably grabbing Vladamir Guerrero off the scrap heap and getting a great season, despite a really bad slump after the all star break. Losing 3 all star players, the three best hitters on the team, for months at a time. At the beginning of the season, I genuinely felt that this was the best team in the AL West, but if you had told me the injuries/effectiveness issues that would have happened, I never would have guessed that I'd be trying to order division champions gear now.

This is one of the most fun years I can remember as a baseball fan. My favorite team literally has contenders for every major award in baseball, and although a sweep of said awards no longer looks likely, I still imagine Hamilton's the front-runner for MVP, Feliz definitely has a shot at ROY, Lewis and Guerrero are probably the front runners for CPOY, and Washington and Daniels are I would imagine absolute locks for Manager and Executive. It's a young team at it's core supplanted by a few veterans in the right places, and finally with a dedicated ownership group and money behind it, I see absolutely no reason they won't have a competitive window for the next several seasons.

I thought that it was a foregone conclusion that the Angles would win the AL West because the heat would melt the Texas pitchers. Good for the Rangers for proving the doubters wrong...again. I'll be rooting for them in the AL.

[Epiphanic]

I'm stupid for even jumping in to this, but...

No its because I think they are phony. (1)The stat that bothers me most is Quality Start. I don't think 7 IP and 3 runs allowed is a quality start if you leaving trailing. How did those three runs score. Did you team give you a lead only for you to give up a run the following inning?

(2)I've learned to accept OPS somewhat, but I think too much is still placed on slugging. (3)I rather see what some does in clutch situations with RISP. You can have a good OPS, but crap the bed every time the game is on the line. For me I want to see them bring back the Game Winning RBI, that was a stat that mattered.

(4)Look at the Mets this year they have 0 Grand Slams, they had just one grand slam last season. What percentage of someone's slugging comes with the bases empty?

(5)Another stat that annoys me is WAR, to quote Edwin Starr WAR what is it good for? How can you really measure wins over replacement, will the game situations be the same with a made up minor league replacement?

1. Say we have two pitchers. They both pitch 7 innings and give up 3 runs, all earned. And for funsies, lets say that they pitched absolutely identical. All runs scored the exact same way, they gave up exactly the same amount of hits and walks, even the order of every plate appearance result is the same. Pitcher A's team is only able to score 2 runs in the first seven innings where Pitcher B's team scores 5 in those same seven innings. Despite leaving the game trailing, Pitcher A did not pitch any worse than Pitcher B.

2. That's actually a valid criticism. If I remember correctly, studies have shown that an additional "point" of OBP is more valuable than SLG. The allure of OPS is that it's simple to calculate and does a decent enough job describing the prowess of the hitter. It's not perfect, but the simplicity is a big reason why it's popular.

3. Clutch ability is not a skill. At least not one that has been demonstratably repeatable. Are there clutch situations? Absolutely. Do players' skills increase or decrease depending on the "clutchness" of the situation? Absolutely not. But if you're into "clutchness" type stuff, you might dig WPA (Win Probability Added).

4. Sample size. Situational hitting, while important, do not provide an accurate description of a player's or team's ability.

5. You can complain about what the "baseline" for "replacement level" is. It's really just a guess. And WAR is not some magic stat that shows everything we need to know about a player. In this stat, "wins" is really runs divided by 10. Say you have a player whose WAR is 3.0, if you replaced that guy with a "replacement level player," that team would score 30 less runs which equates to approximately 3 less wins over a season.

------

Well that was a fun exercise. You don't like the advanced statistics? That's okay. There's nothing wrong with enjoying baseball without them. And my enjoyment of the game isn't any less because you hate WAR. I don't know if anyone likes Joe Posnanski, but he wrote a pretty good blog post about why he likes WAR.

Also, on the Felix v. C.C. debate he also did an interesting thought experiment comparing them start by start. You can read it here. His last paragraph really sums up what all these fancy stats are. Spoiler alert: Mr. Posnanski finds that Felix has pitched better than C.C.

But if there?s one thing I hope this little thought experiment does, I hope it makes clear that the mysterious numbers that some people rip ? WAR, FIP, xFIP and so on ? these things are grounded in what ACTUALLY HAPPENS in baseball games. They?re not just throwing darts in an alley at midnight. There?s a reason that Hernandez has better numbers in all those crazy stats. It?s because game in and game out Hernandez has pitched better than Sabathia.

[raysox]

I think the NL Cy Young is a two horse race, between Tim Lincecum and Ubaldo Jiminez.

Wait, WHAT!? He's had his worst year of his career. 19th best ERA, and a 15-10 record

Pitchers like Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jiminez, Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay, Matt Latos, or even Tim Hudson make sense. Not Big Time Timmy Jim.

[BBTV]

Just to throw something into the debate about the importance of wins...

Could it be the case that a pitcher might pitch differently if he knows that he has a cushion vs if he knows that he doesn't? Maybe a pitcher who routinely gets 4 runs knows that he only has to hold the opposition to 3 or less, and may not reach back and risk anything by exerting himself too much. That doesn't mean that he couldn't do well with less support, just that he's doing what it takes to win. If you don't get much support, then you know that you have to be that much better, and if you have to shut them out, then so be it.

Now obviously shut outs every time aren't possible by anyone, and I'm not saying that I even believe in the paragraph I just typed. Just that as much as you can't blame a guy for losses that happened when he didn't get support, you can't blame a guy for wins that he got when he did get support. Roy Halladay lost a few 2-1 or 1-0 games (don't know the exact numbers) but he also won a few 11-6 games, so it kind of evens out for him.

To say that wins are useless is silly, considering that's the point of playing (though I understand the argument that it shouldn't be pinned on the pitcher). To say that they mean everything is also silly. They do have to be a factor though - one of several factors. Stats are important, wins should be considered, and intangibles should also go in to it (did he stand tall in big game situations?) A .500 pitcher could certainly win Cy Young, and I'm not going to pierce my heart with a piece of a broken bat over it. But to say that it's a slam dunk and the other factors aren't important is just as dumb as Tnak saying that strikeouts are overrated. That may be the dumbest thing I've ever read here. Seriously? Strikeouts are the single biggest thing that kills a rally or sets up an inning-ending double play or takes shaky defense out of the picture and intimidates an offense. If anything, strikeouts have become an underrated statistic.

[BBTV]

Risking potential humiliation by updating sig a day or two early.

[Breakwood]

I think the NL Cy Young is a two horse race, between Tim Lincecum and Ubaldo Jiminez.

Wait, WHAT!? He's had his worst year of his career. 19th best ERA, and a 15-10 record

Pitchers like Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jiminez, Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay, Matt Latos, or even Tim Hudson make sense. Not Big Time Timmy Jim.

Look who made the statement