Let The Hot Stove Heat Up: 2015-2016 MLB Offseason

[pmoehrin]

Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks for Ender Inciarte

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/diamondbacks-trade-shelby-miller-braves.html

The big name in this deal is Dansby Swanson, last year's #1 overall pick. Not a piece I trade for Shelby Miller. No clue what Dave Stewart is thinking here.

That and Inciarte is hardly any slouch either. Guy hit .300 last year and probably should have won a Gold Glove.

If it were Miller for Inciarte straight up I would call it a fair deal, but to throw in Swanson makes no sense at all.

[ninersdd]

Swanson is from Marrietta, GA so he has to be liking this. The Braves get a potential hometown stud as their new stadium is gonna open.

[Gary]

Braves now have the Diamondbacks last three 1st round picks. Blair, Touki and Swanson

[HedleyLamarr]

Shelby certainly deserved a much better statistical 2015 season. If there's ever an indictment on a win-loss record not telling the story, Shelby's 6-17 record with a just-over 3.00 ERA is it.

The return looks to be outstanding, though like a lot of the deals the Braves have made in the last 15 months...won't know how these trades work for a few years.

Braves fans believe 2016 will be a dreadful season, but what do outsiders and big baseball fans see in the 2016 Braves? Obviously not contending for anything, but they won't be 2003 Tigers bad, will they?

[FGM13]

Arizona had no sense of value. The Touki Toussaint trade was one of the dumbest things I've ever seen and Inciarte, Blair AND Swanson is way too much for Shelby Miller.

[(probably)notabandwagonfan]

After the Simmons trade, I was pretty down on what the Braves were doing, but this trade made it all better. D-Backs u da best.

[FiddySicks]

The more I look at this trade, the more baffling it seems from the D Backs perspective. The D Backs just sold their entire farm to the Braves for essentially a #3 starter, and with the loss of Inciarte and the fairly strong chance that Blair was going to be the D Backs 5th starter anyway, they actually got WORSE in the short run, too! Amazing. What in the world were they thinking? I didn't even know it was legal for the D Backs to trade a draft pick that quickly.

[CS85]

Arizona is going for the whole thing. They want Johnson/Schilling. They've got two magnificent starters out of this, but may have just given the Braves the keys to unlocking another long stretch of division titles when the time comes.

I'm pretty unimpressed with the Castro return from the Yankees, but the Cubs had no leverage. NYY knew the Cubs had to deal him. I still think they need one more starting pitcher and a true CF but I don't see them getting Heyward. That'd be too good to be true.

[pmoehrin]

Arizona is going for the whole thing. They want Johnson/Schilling. They've got two magnificent starters out of this, but may have just given the Braves the keys to unlocking another long stretch of division titles when the time comes.

If that's the mindset then Arizona could be seeing something in Shelby Miller that nobody else is seeing. This is the type of trade package you put together for Max Scherzer, or Sonny Gray, or Jacob deGrom. Someone that actually brings something to the table that you can't duplicate or replace.

For this deal to work out, Shelby Miller needs to get to that level as a starter, which is possible, but never a given. For every Clayton Kershaw, there's a Justin Thompson and a Tom Gorzelanny. It is extremely difficult to project how a good a young starter is going to be even if they appear to be pretty solid out of the gate.

What worries me about Miller is that he seemed to have a rough time handling what I would consider to be a #1 starter's workload. In the first half his ERA was 2.38, but in the second half it jumped up to 3.83. What's really alarming though is his ERA after August 31st. 5.40 from September 1st on. Is Shelby Miller someone that can consistently take you into the seventh inning and beyond and still be somewhat effective in those late innings, as guys like Greinke, Keuchel and Arrieta do on a consistent basis, or is he someone that can really only go six before the wheels fall off? I don't think we've gotten an answer to that yet and until we do, I don't think anyone can say with a great deal of confidence just how good Shelby Miller can really be.

Overall there's certainly a lot more to like about Shelby Miller then dislike. He could be in the starting rotation for all 30 teams in baseball and would probably the number #1 starter on a third of them, including the one he just got traded from, but whether or not he's reached his ceiling as a pitcher remains to be seen.

As far as the deal itself goes I don't even think its that great of a deal in the short term because of what they lost in Inciarte which is not going to be easy to replace. Short of list outfielders who I would rather have on my time over Ender Inciarte and most all of them are perennial All-Stars. Long term already it has the potential to be one of the most lopsided deals in baseball history given that there's two top 50 prospects involved including a former #1 overall pick.

Still not a fan of Atlanta's big picture strategy, but I think this move was a no brainer from their perspective. Yeah they lost a potential staff ace, but in return they're getting two top 50 prospects and their starting left fielder for the next five years. There's not much that can go wrong from Atlanta's perspective. I think worst case scenario would be a near wash.

[cmm]

The more I look at this trade, the more baffling it seems from the D Backs perspective. The D Backs just sold their entire farm to the Braves for essentially a #3 starter, and with the loss of Inciarte and the fairly strong chance that Blair was going to be the D Backs 5th starter anyway, they actually got WORSE in the short run, too! Amazing. What in the world were they thinking? I didn't even know it was legal for the D Backs to trade a draft pick that quickly.

Yeah, they changed the rule after the Trea Turner disaster. Now players drafted can be traded right after that year's World Series and can't be included as a PTBNL before then.

[cmm]

Neil Walker to the Mets for Jon Niese. Nice!

[HedleyLamarr]

What worries me about Miller is that he seemed to have a rough time handling what I would consider to be a #1 starter's workload. In the first half his ERA was 2.38, but in the second half it jumped up to 3.83. What's really alarming though is his ERA after August 31st. 5.40 from September 1st on. Is Shelby Miller someone that can consistently take you into the seventh inning and beyond and still be somewhat effective in those late innings, as guys like Greinke, Keuchel and Arrieta do on a consistent basis, or is he someone that can really only go six before the wheels fall off? I don't think we've gotten an answer to that yet and until we do, I don't think anyone can say with a great deal of confidence just how good Shelby Miller can really be.

To be fair to Shelby, his second half numbers can probably be pinned on him trying to be perfect with every pitch. Didn't he have a stretch last season where he pitched over 40 consecutive innings where his team scored zero runs? He had to be pressing in the second half. He probably got tired of answering questions about his 20+ game streak between wins. He had a second no-hit bid (besides the no-hit bid that ended with one out to go in May) that went into either the 8th or 9th inning...and still didn't get the win.

[Crabcake]

Cubs and Cardinals said to be the finalists for Heyward. Imagine the feeling around the Cardinals organization if they lose Lackey AND Heyward to the Cubbies.

Also, earlier in the day, it was reported the O's had offered Davis 7 years and $150 million. That wasn't enough, and they've said they've now pulled that offer. Good - if they're going to spend over $100 mil on someone, spend it on an elite OF or SP.

[BBTV]

Astros trade 4 players to Phillies for Ken "100-miles" Giles.

Don't know anything about the 4 players but he's going to be a great closer who won't make any money for a few years.

[The_Admiral]

Cubs and Cardinals said to be the finalists for Heyward. Imagine the feeling around the Cardinals organization if they lose Lackey AND Heyward to the Cubbies.

"Hm, that sucks, but here are two dudes from Springfield named Matt who will outproduce them at one-tenth the price."

[CS85]

Cubs and Cardinals said to be the finalists for Heyward. Imagine the feeling around the Cardinals organization if they lose Lackey AND Heyward to the Cubbies.

"Hm, that sucks, but here are two dudes from Springfield named Matt who will outproduce them at one-tenth the price."

"Here's eventual hall of famer Whitey Underpaid who has agreed to a 30 year contract at the annual price of "The Love of The Game." His best chum, Spanish Catchyname, will also sign a Cardinal For Life deal, but unfortunately there is a Curious Death Via Questionable Morals clause in his contract that could kick in during any offseason."

[LMU]

I hope things start happening soon. These have to have been the dullest Winter Meetings that I can remember. It was Greinke, Chapman's target practice, and not much else.

[CS85]

The freaking Angels have jumped in as a 3rd finalist for Heyward. They'll give him whatever he wants. Piss on Anaheim.

edit:

Alden Gonzalez @Alden_Gonzalez

I'm told Angels are not seriously involved with Jason Heyward at this time. Also not Gordon, Upton or Cespedes. Certainly can change though.

edit 2: Cardinals re-up Broxton to a 2 year deal. Hopefully that eats up like $10020240524 million.

edit 3: The goddamned Nationals are now in on Heyward.

[jrodsep]

I hope things start happening soon. These have to have been the dullest Winter Meetings that I can remember. It was Greinke, Chapman's target practice, and not much else.

1. Was the Chapman deal cancelled or just put on hold until the commish says it's okay to proceed?

2. Where are the Cubs gonna play Heyward if they sign him? Right Field and move Soler to Center?

[pmoehrin]

I hope things start happening soon. These have to have been the dullest Winter Meetings that I can remember. It was Greinke, Chapman's target practice, and not much else.

1. Was the Chapman deal cancelled or just put on hold until the commish says it's okay to proceed?

2. Where are the Cubs gonna play Heyward if they sign him? Right Field and move Soler to Center?

1. I think the Dodgers themselves would like to see if criminal charges will be pressed before procedding.

2. I would think Heyward would be in center and Soler in right. As great of a right fielder Hewyard is Soler is almost equally terrible. I'd have far more faith in Heyward's ability to change positions than Soler. Defensively I'd take a good center fielder and a bad right fielder over a great right fielder and a terrible center fielder.