2023 NFL Offseason thread

[BBTV]

6 hours ago, Cujo said:

Daniel Jones - $160M/4 years

Derek Carr - $150M/4 years

Geno Smith - $105M/3 years

 

Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen should immediately holdout and demand $1B/8 year contracts. I'm dead serious. That's their current value after this week.

 

Those numbers are misleading AF.  The only thing that matters is the guarantee and when teams can get out with minimal cap hit.  It's highly unlikely Jones and Smith will see that much money from their teams.  I don't know about Carr's contract.

 

The extra years tacked on at the end are usually either 1) just to spread out the cap hit, or 2) make the agent look good.  Most guys would take lower deals with higher guarantees.

 

I originally sulked when I saw the Jones deal, because if he's worth $40M/year, then Jalen Hurts is worth $100M/year, but then I saw it's "only" $80M guaranteed, whereas Hurts will likely get $50M/year with around $200 guaranteed (just a guess).  That's a way better contract, even if the average salary (on paper) only loos like it's 20% more.

 

Also, I believe that QB contracts are more complicated than backup linebacker contracts, since the dollar amount is so much more.  There's probably lots more terms and conditions, as well as verbiage about how the money will be spread out, deferred, etc.  Dude - just hire an agent to go through all of that.  What's an agent's rate - 5%?  8%?  So freaking what.  It's entirely possible they're putting decent deals in front of him, but maybe he's not interpreting them as decent.  We don't know - none of us are in the room - but it seems like their original offers last year were actually pretty good for the time ($133M guaranteed).

 

NFL owners need to get together and give the Browns owner a gang-style beat down.  The Browns ruined the NFL by signing a waste of oxygen like Watson for a fully guaranteed contract.  Now everyone wants that, and it'll destroy their franchises and put teams at risk due to injuries and skill degradation.

 

I don't blame players one single bit for trying to squeeze as much as they can out of their teams.  Not one bit.  But the Browns set a dangerous precedent that has a cascading effect - for a lousy human being.  If they're not everyone's least favorite team (at least not everyone who's team has a pending FA franchise QB) they should be.

[DCarp1231]

I’m all for hyping up draft prospects but calling these guys “physical specimens” and alike terminology needs to be stopped. They aren’t some exotic creature. This isn’t window shopping.

 

[GDAWG]

11 hours ago, Cujo said:

Daniel Jones - $160M/4 years

Derek Carr - $150M/4 years

Geno Smith - $105M/3 years

 

Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen should immediately holdout and demand $1B/8 year contracts. I'm dead serious. That's their current value after this week.

 

Burrow is going to get more than Daniel Jones.  Burrow, Hurts, Herbert, (maybe) Tua, TLaw if he continues to play extremely well in 2023 as he did in 2022 and Jared Goff if he also continues to play as well as he did in 2023 are next in line.  

 

[gosioux76]

4 hours ago, DCarp1231 said:

I’m all for hyping up draft prospects but calling these guys “physical specimens” and alike terminology needs to be stopped. They aren’t some exotic creature. This isn’t window shopping.

 

Not to mention that the term "physical specimen" is a stupid and nonsensical piece of sports slang that could literally apply to anybody on the planet. If you exist, you're a physical specimen. So congratulations to everyone. 

[Cujo]

3 hours ago, GDAWG said:

Burrow is going to get more than Daniel Jones

 

Obviously.

 

Burrow is younger than Daniel Jones has been to a Super Bowl and on trajectory for Canton. He's proven more and adds wayyyy more value than Daniel Jones ever will. So why shouldn't Burrow hold out right now and demand a billion dollars with half of it guaranteed? And I bet Cincy would seriously consider giving him that. That's what Burrow's true market value is after this week.

[dont care]

On 3/7/2023 at 9:07 PM, DCarp1231 said:

Howell is the QB1 headed into the new league year, but there will be some time of competition. Highly doubt its anyone like Lamar. It definitely wasn’t going to be Derek Carr or even Daniel Jones either.
 

Let Heinicke loose. If the team brings him back, all it takes is one bad throw by Howell for the chants to start. Fans love Taylor. They’d need someone like Jacoby Brissett or Mike White. The type of QB that will put pressure on Howell, but won’t exactly be breathing down his neck.

 

My long shot hope/wish though, is Ryan Tannehill. It kinda goes against me saying “no top starters”. However, Tannehill has fallen off as of late and his days in Tennessee are seemingly nearing a close.

If you need to coddle your QB1 like this is he really who you want as your QB1?

[DCarp1231]

2 hours ago, dont care said:

If you need to coddle your QB1 like this is he really who you want as your QB1?

Not sure how saying the presumptive QB1 will be part of a starting job competition is “coddling”.

 

Bringing in a QB, any QB you know would win the starting job without stepping on the practice field is counterproductive to the team saying it’s a “competition”.

 

In the off chance Washington snags Jackson and he ends up getting beat out by Howell, you’ve got a ~$40/yr backup, in salary cap hell, can’t keep the players you need, and out two first round picks.

[BBTV]

I agree with @DCarp1231 (see?  I don't 'thumbs down' all your posts.)

 

With a young and relatively unproven QB1, you don't want anyone breathing down his neck, be it from a talent standpoint or a fan-support standpoint.  I've seen it happen here with multiple QB1s, and it doesn't end well.

 

You either bring in an undisputed franchise guy, or a journeyman.  Nothing in between.

[GDAWG]

 

[BBTV]

2 hours ago, GDAWG said:

 

JFC, so the Sixers owner will own franchises that are rivals to the Flyers and Eagles. What’s next - he buys the Braves?

[GDAWG]

2 hours ago, BBTV said:

JFC, so the Sixers owner will own franchises that are rivals to the Flyers and Eagles. What’s next - he buys the Braves?

 

He buys the Texas Rangers to complete his collection of every major sports team in the Big 4 and one sports team in each NFC East market.  

[GDAWG]

 

[sky1324]

Currently it feels like a steep price but if the QB we draft works out then this will be worth it. Losing DJ stings a lot but I'm coping by saying that it helps save cap space and that WRs are easier to find than QBs. My only fear is that we return to the Cam era, where we had an elite QB surrounded by absolutely nothing. Very high-risk, high-reward. Personally I have Stroud at 1, Young a close 2, Richardson 3, and Levis a distant 4. Either Stroud or Young would be a great pick for me. Excited for the draft!

[heavybass]

Or you could :censored: everything up and draft Richardson as Cam 2.0...

[Sykotyk]

There's such an importance on having the best QB, that it makes sense to just gamble everything to get the guy you want. if you lose you lose. Might as well take the chance by giving up picks.

[FiddySicks]

That actually looks like a pretty good trade for the Bears. The #1 pick wasn’t really a necessity for them, and now they’ve restocked their own draft picks and brought in one helluva receiver. Add that to them already trading for Chase Claypool last season and they’re in the very least doing all they can to set Justin Fields up for success. The line is still obviously a problem, but with free agency and the draft coming up they could probably do a lot to fix that there. 
 

Seems like a lot to give up for Carolina, but they desperately need a quarterback so having a luxury like Moore is somewhat wasted anyway. 
 

I think the Bears definitely win this trade (let’s see how Stroud does, or they may even just overthink it and being in the wrong guy like Young or lol, Richardson), but I also don’t think this is much of a head scratcher for the Panthers, either. 

[trekbkr]

September 8, 1985, Week 1 of the NFL regular season -- Bud Grant returned to coach the Vikings after Les Steckel went one-season-and-done with a 3-13 record in 1984.  The Vikings hosted the defending Super Bowl champion 49ers for the season opener.   I was at that game with my dad and brothers.  We all expected the Vikes to get creamed by a clearly superior 49ers team, but there was still excitement at the Metrodome thanks to the return of the legendary coach.  The game was low-scoring in the first half, with the Vikings getting shut out, but Minnesota forced 6 turnovers, scored 7 points in the third to tie it and another 21 in the fourth to pull off the upset.  After a year of seeing the Vikings getting rolled over in game after game, it was thrilling to see them come to life and dominate a great team, even if only for a few minutes.   I've still never had more fun at a game.

 

RIP Coach Grant.

 

 

[GDAWG]

I think Anthony Richardson can succeed in the NFL if he's properly developed.  With the tendency though of NFL teams to rush their first round QB, it takes the right team for Richardson and Will Levis and not wanting to rush them.  That's why I think Seattle, Minnesota, Detroit, LA Rams (maybe) are the right situations for either Levis or Richardson, especially Richardson. 

 

Minnesota is still going to have Kirk Cousins be the starter, and unless they sign him to a major contract extension (and we all laugh at Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo Mensah for giving him that extension) he's only going to be there for one more year.  Sooner or later, The Vikings are going to have to have a game plan at QB after Cousins.  They can take Richardson and sit him for his rookie year, barring a Cousins injury (he's missed only 2 games in his time with the Vikings) and they can basically redshirt him as he works on fixing his flaws.   The Vikings are eventually going to have to give Justin Jefferson a major contract and I doubt that they will be able to give both Jefferson and Cousins major contracts, and would probably have to let one of them go eventually, and it would be Cousins.  

 

Seattle just gave Geno Smith a contract extension, but they have not ruled out taking a QB at 5, which puts them in line for either Richardson or Levis.  They can draft one of them and sit them for a year unless Geno gets hurt or goes back to being the journeyman QB he was before Seattle.  

 

Yes, Jared Goff had a good year with the Lions, but like Cousins, he's on the last year of a contract.  Now if he continues to play extremely well during the 2023 season and the Lions are one of the best teams in the NFC, he'll be heavily rewarded.  Now, while I think Richardson or Levis would be good with the Lions (as I still do not trust Goff to be consistent year in and year out) and sit a year as Goff's understudy, in reality, they will probably draft someone like a Hendon Hooker or Jaren Hall later in the draft. 

 

Rams still have Matthew Stafford, and could easily bring back Baker Mayfield.  But if they don't bring back Mayfield, the Rams are left with Bryce Perkins and John Wolford, both of whom suck and Richardson or Levis would likely be upgrades over Wolford and Perkins.  I say maybe because of the rumors of Stafford maybe considering retirement, but that remains to be seen.  

[Gary]

I don't see the Rams mortgaging their future again for a QB tgatvtgey can have next year. They already gave up too much to the Lions so they can win a Super Bowl. Plus I also see the Lions going after Stenson or Duggan in the mid rounds. Lions need a secondary more than a QB right now. 

[oldschoolvikings]

Dammit.  This is hitting me Harder than I would've expected.

 

 

 

 

RIP, coach.