Division 1 College Conference Realignment

[sportsfan7]

5 minutes ago, Burmy said:

Which begs the question; if BYU doesn't come on board, then who's the backup school the Big 12 will pursue? (Possibly another team from the American; maybe USF to give UCF a close rival)

I think Memphis makes sense more than USF, which seems to have blown its advantage over UCF and has been largely irrelevant in the national fb and mbb discussion for the last few years. SMU would also be good, but I don't really see the value in having two Private, Christian schools in DFW. A dark horse pick might be New Mexico which is the flagship school of the 2nd largest statw w/o a P5 team (Nevada is #1, but I think it is more evenly split between UNLV and UNR than New Mexico is between UNM and NMSU)  plus The Pit is one of the best MBB venues.

 

Assuming the AAC loses 3 or 4 teams, who do they replace them with? Personally, I'd say Rice, Marshall, and UAB, with Buffalo as the fourth option. Rice gets them a former Power Conference team and keeps the conference in the Houston market, as well as adding the biggest name of C-USA. Marshall is probably the second biggest name in C-USA and has good fb and mbb programs. UAB has good fb and cbb programs and is located in a mid-size metro area. If the AAC loses a fourth team (Memphis) or the UA trustees block UAB, I think Buffalo makes sense. A medium sized market that may soon lose their NFL team, the school has been on the upswing, is an AAU member and is one of four "flagship" schools of New York (along with Albany, Binghamton, and Stony Brook).

[PrimalCookie]

This article says the other schools considered by the Big 12 aside from the ones being invited were Boise State, Memphis, SMU and USF. So I assume if anyone else bails (which I don’t see happening at this point) it would be one of those four, probably Memphis.

[See Red]

Does USF even bring anything to the table if you get UCF?

 

To think, USF was once in a position to block UCF from joining the Big East.  Now they're getting left in the dust.

[Geoff]

4 hours ago, Dilbert said:

While I have no doubt Cincinnati, Houston and UCF would jump to the Big 12, BYU is still a big question mark. Like Notre Dame I have heard BYU enjoys their football independence and controlling their schedule. Would they be willing to give that up to join the Big 12?

There's really no point in speculating. The big names that are tied in to the Big 12 are saying it's a done deal and these will likely be official additions in a week.

 

 

The speed of this all leads me to believe there's at least a handshake agreement in place with UT and OU.

 

At this point, the conversation is pretty much shifted to the AAC. I think they'll be adding 4 teams. There wasn't enough motivation to replace UConn but with the league being down to 8, they have all the motivation in the world to get back to 12.

[heavybass]

Those are some spicy meatballs.

[Burmy]

1 hour ago, Geoff said:

The speed of this all leads me to believe there's at least a handshake agreement in place with UT and OU.

 

At this point, the conversation is pretty much shifted to the AAC. I think they'll be adding 4 teams. There wasn't enough motivation to replace UConn but with the league being down to 8, they have all the motivation in the world to get back to 12.

I think @sportsfan7 makes some good points, and I'll have to agree with their assessment.

 

Of course, once THAT happens, the conversation will shift to C-USA...methinks they'll raid the Sun Belt (again), targeting Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State and Louisiana (combination of football/MBB/baseball success and strong markets).

[heavybass]

21 minutes ago, Burmy said:

I think @sportsfan7 makes some good points, and I'll have to agree with their assessment.

 

Of course, once THAT happens, the conversation will shift to C-USA...methinks they'll raid the Sun Belt (again), targeting Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State and Louisiana (combination of football/MBB/baseball success and strong markets).

I think C-USA might go for James Madison

[Red Comet]

And the very thing the PAC 12/Big 14/ACC Alliance of American College Football tried to prevent starts happening. Way to go Big 12, you’re actually going to pull through. I’m glad to see I was wrong about the alliance being some plan to carve up the Big 12. Shame it’s going to not be a power conference anymore, but it’ll certainly be better without Texas.

[Burmy]

5 minutes ago, heavybass said:

I think C-USA might go for James Madison

Eventually...but right now, I see 'em more in the Sun Belt's battle plans.

[Red Wolf]

4 hours ago, sportsfan7 said:

A dark horse pick might be New Mexico which is the flagship school of the 2nd largest statw w/o a P5 team (Nevada is #1, but I think it is more evenly split between UNLV and UNR than New Mexico is between UNM and NMSU)  plus The Pit is one of the best MBB venues.

 

New Mexico has about the same chance of going to the Big XII as Missouri State. They're generally awful to mediocre in football and their budget is unimpressive. Basketball doesn't drive expansion that much, otherwise Kansas would be getting poached.

 

33 minutes ago, Burmy said:

Of course, once THAT happens, the conversation will shift to C-USA...methinks they'll raid the Sun Belt (again), targeting Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State and Louisiana (combination of football/MBB/baseball success and strong markets).

 

Conference USA is no longer in a position to poach Sun Belt schools. C-USA made bad bets during the last realignment by overexpanding and focusing too hard on schools in larger markets without considering whether those markets cared. Sun Belt schools make more money on their media deal than C-USA schools do. I'd be surprised if C-USA bothered to even look at expansion unless they lost five or six teams, but there aren't that many teams that anybody else would want.

[Dilbert]

If BYU doesnt join the Big 12 id say Memphis or Boise State.

 

If the American loses Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. I think good replacements for them would be UAB, Louisiana,, Army and Buffalo. Keep in mind currently Army and Navy are Patriot League members with Navy football only for the AAC. Maybe if Navy and Army become full members of the American it might work.  

 

To replace UAB in CUSA Id say James Madison or Kennesaw State, or Sam Houston State

 

To replace Buffalo in the MAC maybe Youngstown State, Indiana State, Murray State, Morehead State or Eastern Kentucky.

 

To replace Louisiana in the Sun Belt maybe Liberty or Chattanooga.

 

 

[Red Wolf]

5 hours ago, Dilbert said:

If the American loses Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. I think good replacements for them would be UAB, Louisiana,, Army and Buffalo. Keep in mind currently Army and Navy are Patriot League members with Navy football only for the AAC. Maybe if Navy and Army become full members of the American it might work.  

 

To replace UAB in CUSA Id say James Madison or Kennesaw State, or Sam Houston State

 

To replace Buffalo in the MAC maybe Youngstown State, Indiana State, Murray State, Morehead State or Eastern Kentucky.

 

Yeah, the American is going to need full members who also play football assuming they lose Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati, and especially if they lose a fourth, so I'm not sure Army is the best choice unless they and/or Navy are willing to leave the Patriot League.

 

It's weird that UAB and Buffalo have become so desired. UAB football was killed off not that long ago, and now they're far more successful than they were before their death (more conference titles since resurrection than they had bowl appearances before) and just built a fancy new stadium. Buffalo used to be on lists of schools that should drop back to FCS because there was no way they could be successful. I do think Buffalo needs major stadium improvements to make a real leap though.

 

C-USA doesn't need to add anybody if they lose UAB. They have too many teams right now as it is. It's the one benefit of them having 14 teams right now.

[Geoff]

14 hours ago, Dilbert said:

If BYU doesnt join the Big 12 id say Memphis or Boise State.

 

If the American loses Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. I think good replacements for them would be UAB, Louisiana,, Army and Buffalo. Keep in mind currently Army and Navy are Patriot League members with Navy football only for the AAC. Maybe if Navy and Army become full members of the American it might work.  

 

To replace UAB in CUSA Id say James Madison or Kennesaw State, or Sam Houston State

 

To replace Buffalo in the MAC maybe Youngstown State, Indiana State, Murray State, Morehead State or Eastern Kentucky.

 

To replace Louisiana in the Sun Belt maybe Liberty or Chattanooga.

Army likes independence and Navy has buyer's remorse. Of the three major academies, the one that's happy in a conference seems to be AFA. Navy isn't unhappy enough to get out the American (at least not yet) but they're not in love with their situation either. Also, I don't think any conference wants the Army-Navy game (played after championship weekend) to be a conference game.

 

To pile on CUSA (don't get me wrong, I've had a soft spot for the league forever but admin has run it terribly), there are former Sun Belt schools who have varying levels of regret about making the switch. 

[Seadragon76]

BYU has too much to lose if they say no to the Big XII. This would be their way into the playoff picture.. same for Cincinnati, Houston and UCF.

 

What happens after this move? Well, here's my theory..

 

-The American, now down to eight football schools, asks UConn to come back so they can at least have an eight game conference schedule. There are potential expansion candidates out there, but first things first here - getting back on their feet.

-Conference USA and the Sun Belt pretty much stay at the numbers they have. If anything, C-USA may end up shedding members if the American sees Rice, North Texas, UTSA and/or UTEP as potential expansion candidates.

[Geoff]

The AAC asks UConn back?

 

[heavybass]

They'll probably ask Liberty

[Geoff]

That's an interesting take. Dead wrong but interesting. 

[Red Comet]

24 minutes ago, Geoff said:

That's an interesting take. Dead wrong but interesting. 

Yeah, I don’t think anyone outside of maaaaybe the Sun Belt is taking Liberty and even that is a long shot. Where do you think the AAC is going to poach members, though?

[heavybass]

It's a better take than say beg Uconn to rejoin.

[heavybass]

Also the AAC will probably take 3-4 members from the C-USA... I'll say Rice, North Texas and Marshall