The 2010-2011 MLB Offseason Thread

[BBTV]

Also, that sound you hear is Carl Crawford wacking off.

[mania]

Some fun with numbers and Jayson Werth, courtesy Joe Sheehan, of BP.

times qualified for batting title: 2;

seasons w/ 500 AB: 2;

seasons w/ 100 games: 4;

Contract years: 7;

Age in final year: 38.

[gingerbreadmann]

Some fun with numbers and Jayson Werth, courtesy Joe Sheehan, of BP.

times qualified for batting title: 2;

seasons w/ 500 AB: 2;

seasons w/ 100 games: 4;

Contract years: 7;

Age in final year: 38.

[epper]

Unbelievable. Suddenly the Vernon Wells deal has competition.

[mania]

The Holy Grail of stupid contracts is still probably Ryan Howard.

[BigEd76]

The Phillies always seem to have plans B, C, and D lately. I'm sure RAJ knew they weren't going to be able to keep him, so they must have a right-handed bat on their radar. Domonic Brown is LH, and had a horrible winter season, so I no longer expect him to be in the opening day lineup - unless they find some sucker to take Ibanez. They simply have too many left handers. Possible platoon in right? I'm extremely curious to see what happens now. I'm just glad he didn't boost any of the NL contenders' lineups.

I think they'll go after Matt Diaz to platoon with Brown while Francisco platoons with Ibanez...

[JayJaxon]

I have been hearing that the Phillies are courting Diaz. The NL East is just playing musical chairs with their players this offseason.

[BBTV]

The Phillies always seem to have plans B, C, and D lately. I'm sure RAJ knew they weren't going to be able to keep him, so they must have a right-handed bat on their radar. Domonic Brown is LH, and had a horrible winter season, so I no longer expect him to be in the opening day lineup - unless they find some sucker to take Ibanez. They simply have too many left handers. Possible platoon in right? I'm extremely curious to see what happens now. I'm just glad he didn't boost any of the NL contenders' lineups.

I think they'll go after Matt Diaz to platoon with Brown while Francisco platoons with Ibanez...

I'm fine with Francisco getting more PT, though he could easily be exposed if he gets too much. I guess if they can't dupe someone into taking Ibanez, this will be an acceptable option.

[Shumway]

I'm curious, due to the massive amounts of "Werth's a stupid piece of " posts on Facebook by Phillies' fans, was he ever expected to return to Philly?

[BrySmalls]

These are the same Nats who couldn't give Dunn a four year deal, yet sign Werth to $126 Million for seven years?

[LocalVulture]

A simple fact: Cash is more important than rings

[McCall]

Apparently someone else had offered Werth 6 years at $18 mil per, so the Nats felt like they had to react fast. I kinda get the feeling that that's a load of crap and they were just trying to justify them overpaying for someone because they realized they screwed it up with Dunn and wanted a "marquee" player. I'd say the maximum deal Werth would've been, well worth, is $12 mil a year for 5 years. He's had a few good years in Philly, but not $18 mil a year good. And before that he was more of a role player.

[BBTV]

I'm curious, due to the massive amounts of "Werth's a stupid piece of " posts on Facebook by Phillies' fans, was he ever expected to return to Philly?

I'm extremely confused by people's reactions here. It was a foregone conclusion even early in the 2010 season that last year was his last with the Phillies. Many people even thought he might get traded at the deadline so that the team would at least get something for him. Now that it's actually reality, they act all shocked and are mad because he "chased the money". All I'm hearing is people lining up to boo him when he comes back. It's insane. This is how life works - you work your way up, then move on to make more money. It works that way in nearly every industry, baseball is no different. I love hearing "he doesn't care about winning obviously!". No. He cares about money, just like you, just like me, just like every idiot out there who is complaining about this. Would they take less money at their job? Yes, I get the argument that once you're rich, what's a couple of extra million. You know what it is? A couple of extra million. It's insane to criticize someone for taking advantage of the biggest opportunity of their life. I'll give him a polite clap when he comes back.

Apparently someone else had offered Werth 6 years at $18 mil per, so the Nats felt like they had to react fast. I kinda get the feeling that that's a load of crap and they were just trying to justify them overpaying for someone because they realized they screwed it up with Dunn and wanted a "marquee" player. I'd say the maximum deal Werth would've been, well worth, is $12 mil a year for 5 years. He's had a few good years in Philly, but not $18 mil a year good. And before that he was more of a role player.

12 mil / 5 years would never have even come close to getting this done. The Phillies offered 16 for 4 (or 3 + option depending on who you read.) Even during the season, they were saying 15 per was the starting mark. He's a good player - anyone who argues that is dumb. But he's a complimentary player - not an 18 mil / year franchise player. I really think DC screwed this one up.

[TheOldRoman]

The Holy Grail of stupid contracts is still probably Ryan Howard.

Howard's is horrible, but Alfonso Soriano's takes the cake. The Cubs bid against themselves for a DH who they have to stick in the field, whose speed is one of his primary weapons, and they will be paying him until he is 38.

[Breakwood]

So appearently The Blue Jays are going to send Shaun Marcum to Milwaukee for Brett Lawrie. I'm assuming this means that AA is going to go all out to get Zac Greinke this offseason.

[Cujo]

The Diamondbacks have traded "The Sheriff" Mark Reynolds to the Orioles for prospects.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5891074

[BaltimoreFan]

The Diamondbacks have traded "The Sheriff" Mark Reynolds to the Orioles for prospects.

David Hernandez isn't a prospect, he's actually spent two years in the majors now. He was a solid young starter, but his future was always seen as a reliever. He has the potential to be a top closer. Mickilio was another high upside reliever, but so far he hasn't been able to put it together. It sucks to lose Hernandez, especially when the bullpen was starting to get better, but I think you have to make this deal. A 3B with power is much more valuable than a closer IMO. I was originally not thrilled with Reynolds, because I don't really like free swingers. However a closer look at his stats shows he's actually a patient hitter, which the Orioles desperately need. He managed a .320 OBP despite a .198 BA. He also had more walks last season than any Orioles (83 compared to Nick Markakis's team high 73). So I guess overall, I like the trade. Now hopefully we can improve at 1B (Derrek Lee?) and SS.

[floydnimrod]

I'm curious, due to the massive amounts of "Werth's a stupid piece of " posts on Facebook by Phillies' fans, was he ever expected to return to Philly?

I'm extremely confused by people's reactions here. It was a foregone conclusion even early in the 2010 season that last year was his last with the Phillies. Many people even thought he might get traded at the deadline so that the team would at least get something for him. Now that it's actually reality, they act all shocked and are mad because he "chased the money". All I'm hearing is people lining up to boo him when he comes back. It's insane. This is how life works - you work your way up, then move on to make more money. It works that way in nearly every industry, baseball is no different. I love hearing "he doesn't care about winning obviously!". No. He cares about money, just like you, just like me, just like every idiot out there who is complaining about this. Would they take less money at their job? Yes, I get the argument that once you're rich, what's a couple of extra million. You know what it is? A couple of extra million. It's insane to criticize someone for taking advantage of the biggest opportunity of their life. I'll give him a polite clap when he comes back.

Apparently someone else had offered Werth 6 years at $18 mil per, so the Nats felt like they had to react fast. I kinda get the feeling that that's a load of crap and they were just trying to justify them overpaying for someone because they realized they screwed it up with Dunn and wanted a "marquee" player. I'd say the maximum deal Werth would've been, well worth, is $12 mil a year for 5 years. He's had a few good years in Philly, but not $18 mil a year good. And before that he was more of a role player.

12 mil / 5 years would never have even come close to getting this done. The Phillies offered 16 for 4 (or 3 + option depending on who you read.) Even during the season, they were saying 15 per was the starting mark. He's a good player - anyone who argues that is dumb. But he's a complimentary player - not an 18 mil / year franchise player. I really think DC screwed this one up.

One of the more intelligent posts I've read on the boards.

[NJTank]

I dont understand this deal at all. I agree with what a lot of people already said it was the Phillies line up and ballpark that inflated his stats. In DC he will struggle, and the Nats will regret this deal.

[mania]

I was originally not thrilled with Reynolds, because I don't really like free swingers. However a closer look at his stats shows he's actually a patient hitter, which the Orioles desperately need. He managed a .320 OBP despite a .198 BA. He also had more walks last season than any Orioles (83 compared to Nick Markakis's team high 73). So I guess overall, I like the trade. Now hopefully we can improve at 1B (Derrek Lee?) and SS.

Reynolds seems like a great bounce-back candidate. He's going to strike out a TON. This isn't a question. His K% has always been around 40%, even in his best seasons.

However, his steep regression last year is due to several of his line drives (2010 LD%: 13.3%, Career: 17.7%) becoming fly balls (2010 FB%: 54.9%, Career: 47.8%). This lead to his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) being at .257, one of the lowest in the majors, when his career is .323. This is why he hit .198. It's explainable, so it's not just luck, but it looks like the issue was he was uppercutting his swing a little too much. That's extremely fixable.

And as mentioned, even in his worst season, his walk ratio increased, to 14.1%. He's not a great defender, on either side of the infield, but especially at DH, I think he'll definitely improve in 2011 compared to 2010.