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What do you consider a "blowout"?


Hat Boy

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Leading into one of the NCAA games, some sports TV show guy predicted a "blowout" and then gave his predicted final score as 76-66.

I never thought of a 10-point basketball win as a blowout.

At what score do you guys consider a game to be a blowout in basketball, football, baseball and hockey?

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Leading into one of the NCAA games, some sports TV show guy predicted a "blowout" and then gave his predicted final score as 76-66.

I never thought of a 10-point basketball win as a blowout.

At what score do you guys consider a game to be a blowout in basketball, football, baseball and hockey?

In basketball, you can't always judge whether a game is a blowout by the score. Obviously a 50-point margin is a blowout and a 1-point margin is not. But in that 8-15 point range it's hard to say.

Obviously, you'll see a 10-point margin for an overtime game. That's not a blowout. Sometimes you'll see a a 5-point lead stretched to 10 points down the stretch because of fouls and the lead team making all of its free throws. Not a blowout. But sometimes a team pretty much leads by 20 the entire game and the happenings of the last two minutes (desperation 3-pointers made and free throws missed) will close the score gap considerably. That could be looked upon as a blowout. My first two examples are much closer than my third example, even if the margin of victory is the same.

That said, if I was predicting the winners of games, I don't think I'd predict a 10-point game and use the word "blowout."

On a related note, don't bet on basketball point spreads.

Disclaimer: If this comment is about an NBA uniform from 2017-2018 or later, do not constitute a lack of acknowledgement of the corporate logo to mean anything other than "the corporate logo is terrible and makes the uniform significantly worse."

 

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This varies sport by sport. In basketball the score is usually so lopsided early that the starters don't play much in the latter stages of the game and/or defense gets lax so the losing team makes a run to make the score difference around 10-15 points when at some point they were down by 20-30 points and were clearly outclassed.

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league average difference per game + 1 standard deviation

No because you are saying anything greater than average is a blow out, blow outs are exceptions, they happen about as often as overtimes. When you look at foot ball the average difference is less than 10 points but everyone is saying atleast 20 points.
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I'm going to be that complicated guy who says it's not as easy as just "X number of points" even if the losing team picked up some garbage points at the end to save face.

It's got something to do with the proportion of the number of points scored in a game. Obviously, low-scoring games in any sport aren't going to be considered blowouts. Similarly, a high-scoring game might just be looked at as an offensive explosion (or defensive lapse) instead of a blowout.

For "normal" games... I'd consider admiral's 20+ (basketball), 28+ (football), 6+ (baseball), 5+ (hockey) to be a pretty accurate threshold. I might even go down to 24+ in football because that's still a four-possession game.

But... I wouldn't look at a 130-110 basketball game, a 56-31 football game, 15-9 baseball game, or 8-3 hockey game (maybe hockey is the exception) in the same vein that I'd view, say, a 90-70 basketball game, 35-10 football game, or 8-2 baseball game. There's some sort of algorithm involved that makes it more than just raw point differential, at least to me.

I've clearly put too much thought into this.

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football: generally, a 4-TD margin would qualify IMO. Not sure why I feel the way I do about it, but I generally hate watching the tail ends of football blowouts...the winning team's backups are generally showing why they're backups, and the losing team, with few exceptions, tends to look rather listless. Then again, at least in college blowouts, you'll probably see the winning team's third string tailback who's not gonna play much this year but is still better than anyone Directional U can trot out.

baseball: 6 or 7 runs....hard to really come back from those margins.

basketball: yeh, sometimes that 10 point margin isn't as close as it looks, and sometimes a 15-point win might've just been the winners getting hot near the end coinciding with the losers getting cold at the wrong time. 15-20 points would be my minimum range though.

hockey: 5-6 goals

soccer: how about a 3-4 goal margin...yeh, unless you're Barca, Man U or one of the big clubs with $100 mil strikers, you're probably not gonna come back from that far down. Probably 2-3 in Italy :D

Aussie football: the minimum, I figure, is around 30-40 points or thereabouts, though it's like basketball in that a 2-goal margin might just have been a furious comeback that came up short, and that 30 point final might have been the winners getting hot in the final quarter.

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For basketball:

<5 points - close, nail-biter, etc

5-20 points - generic outcome

20-40 points - blowout

>40 points - destruction

Football:

<7 points - close

7-17 points - generic

>17 points - blowout

Baseball's not as cut and dry. There can be 1 run games that feel much bigger and 4-5 run games that feel much closer.

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