2008 MLB Season

[PhilliesPhan1325]

You know I actually thought the Mets weren't going to blow it and make it in as the wild card. But wow.

And does anyone know, as DirtyCurty said, if the fans went nuts, booing and all that good stuff?

[jkrdevil]

You know I actually thought the Mets weren't going to blow it and make it in as the wild card. But wow.

And does anyone know, as DirtyCurty said, if the fans went nuts, booing and all that good stuff?

The Fans were booing at the end. There was supposed to be a closing ceremony that took place after the game. I'm assuming they had it but my extra innings package cut the game off before that started so I don't know what the reaction to that was.

[gingerbreadmann]

Ha.

Anyway, what's the situation with the Wild Card? If the Mets win and the Brewers lose, the Mets win the Wild Card and if the Brewers win and the Mets lose, the Brewers win the Wild Card.

What if BOTH teams lose, as is the case right now?

If both teams either win or lose they play each other tomorrow night at Shea in game 163.

You have got to be kidding me. That is absolutely insane.

It's called sarcasm, as Howard as a legitimate shot at winning NL MVP.

Well if he really has a legitimate shot, that's insane.

Uh oh... 1 more out!

I personally wouldn't give Howard the MVP, nor do I think he'll win it, but to say that a player who leads his league in HR and RBI, and hits .345 w/ 11 HR in September for a division winner doesn't have a legitimate shot at the award is just stupid.

RBI's are based on how your teammates get on, you can't control that. You need to have a far more independent statistic to judge a hitter.

And no you do not have a legitimate shot when you have Albert Pujols to compete with. If I did a straight up comparison of Pujols and Howard this year, using true independent stats and such, you would likely cry.

Someone did this comparison, if you took Chipper from the first four months and combined him with Manny from the last 2, he still wouldn't have had as good a year as Pujols. THAT is scary.

Oh god, I almost died. I thought that was gone.

Why would I cry? I wrote that I didn't think Howard deserved the MVP, though I would dispute your dismissal of RBI as a legit. statistic. Hitters are going to get their RBI regardless of their teams. If you put Howard (or any good power hitter) on just about any team, he'd have plenty of RBI - it's just that nobody batting after him would have any.

See, that's just not true. It's not that if you put a good hitter on a different team they would magically lose half their RBI. It's that people on better teams get far more RBI chances, and RBI is basically, besides home runs, a batters ability to hit with men on base. Well if a player is surrounded by a better group of hitters, he will get more chances to get RBI. If he hits better with no one on than with men on, he gets no credit. If you get a double with a guy on first and for one guy the runner gets thrown out at home or is too slow so he has to stop at 3rd, he gets no credit as opposed to the player with the runner who is safe. If you have a difference in at bats, the person with even 10 more is going to have more opportunities to get RBI. If you draw a walk in a crucial situation or even a non-crucial situation that is not with the bases loaded, you get no credit. It is far too dependent on outside factors to be a fair comparator. It isn't useless, no, and good hitters will still get a fair amount of RBI but it simply cannot be used to judge hitters for a serious purpose.

Ryan howard is hitting .250/.338/.542 with 48 homers, 146 RBI, 199 strikeouts, and 11 GIDP.

Pujols: .346/.461/.651 with 37 homers, 115 RBI, 54 strikeouts, and 16 GIDP.

That alone speaks for itself. But let's go further. If you gather each OPS (which is known as a more independent judge of hitting talent, plain-and-simply combining basically the two most important factors of hitting) and park-adjust it, then compare it to league average, with average being 100, howard scores 122 while Pujols scores 190.

If you assign a weight value to every single outcome of an at-bat based on how those outcomes correlate with runs at the league level over the past like 10 years, then calculate approximately how many runs that player is worth compared to a replacement level player (one of those minor league free agents who come up in September, after playing in AAA and doing well, who a team could theoretically get at will), you will find that Pujols' bat is worth 78 runs above replacement, 10 more than second place in the NL and 22 more than third, and Howard's is worth 22, lower than more "average" players such as Conor Jackson, Brad Hawpe, and Rick Ankiel. So essentially Chipper Jones and his .400 flirtation plus Ryan Howard equals Pujols this year, though it is spread over 2 players rather than one and Jones has been approximately 2.5 times better than Howard, even though he disappeared in July. And this isn't even factoring in defense, in which case Pujols' is far better than Howard's. (no I'm not using Fielding Percentage, although even the more sophisticated defense stats still have a ways to go).

I know you said that you wouldn't give the MVP to Howard but still, when you dig a little deeper than just what a guy does in term of RBI, and look at what he is solely responsible for and in all situations, it is really not even close. That's why, partly, RBI should not come close to things like MVP discussions.

[Mac the Knife]

Does this mean no more Shea Stadium Goodbye threads?

[rams80]

Does this mean no more Shea Stadium Goodbye threads?

Only youtube ones.

[BBTV]

Ha.

Anyway, what's the situation with the Wild Card? If the Mets win and the Brewers lose, the Mets win the Wild Card and if the Brewers win and the Mets lose, the Brewers win the Wild Card.

What if BOTH teams lose, as is the case right now?

If both teams either win or lose they play each other tomorrow night at Shea in game 163.

You have got to be kidding me. That is absolutely insane.

It's called sarcasm, as Howard as a legitimate shot at winning NL MVP.

Well if he really has a legitimate shot, that's insane.

Uh oh... 1 more out!

I personally wouldn't give Howard the MVP, nor do I think he'll win it, but to say that a player who leads his league in HR and RBI, and hits .345 w/ 11 HR in September for a division winner doesn't have a legitimate shot at the award is just stupid.

RBI's are based on how your teammates get on, you can't control that. You need to have a far more independent statistic to judge a hitter.

And no you do not have a legitimate shot when you have Albert Pujols to compete with. If I did a straight up comparison of Pujols and Howard this year, using true independent stats and such, you would likely cry.

Someone did this comparison, if you took Chipper from the first four months and combined him with Manny from the last 2, he still wouldn't have had as good a year as Pujols. THAT is scary.

Oh god, I almost died. I thought that was gone.

Why would I cry? I wrote that I didn't think Howard deserved the MVP, though I would dispute your dismissal of RBI as a legit. statistic. Hitters are going to get their RBI regardless of their teams. If you put Howard (or any good power hitter) on just about any team, he'd have plenty of RBI - it's just that nobody batting after him would have any.

See, that's just not true. It's not that if you put a good hitter on a different team they would magically lose half their RBI. It's that people on better teams get far more RBI chances, and RBI is basically, besides home runs, a batters ability to hit with men on base. Well if a player is surrounded by a better group of hitters, he will get more chances to get RBI. If he hits better with no one on than with men on, he gets no credit. If you get a double with a guy on first and for one guy the runner gets thrown out at home or is too slow so he has to stop at 3rd, he gets no credit as opposed to the player with the runner who is safe. If you have a difference in at bats, the person with even 10 more is going to have more opportunities to get RBI. If you draw a walk in a crucial situation or even a non-crucial situation that is not with the bases loaded, you get no credit. It is far too dependent on outside factors to be a fair comparator. It isn't useless, no, and good hitters will still get a fair amount of RBI but it simply cannot be used to judge hitters for a serious purpose.

Ryan howard is hitting .250/.338/.542 with 48 homers, 146 RBI, 199 strikeouts, and 11 GIDP.

Pujols: .346/.461/.651 with 37 homers, 115 RBI, 54 strikeouts, and 16 GIDP.

That alone speaks for itself. But let's go further. If you gather each OPS (which is known as a more independent judge of hitting talent, plain-and-simply combining basically the two most important factors of hitting) and park-adjust it, then compare it to league average, with average being 100, howard scores 122 while Pujols scores 190.

If you assign a weight value to every single outcome of an at-bat based on how those outcomes correlate with runs at the league level over the past like 10 years, then calculate approximately how many runs that player is worth compared to a replacement level player (one of those minor league free agents who come up in September, after playing in AAA and doing well, who a team could theoretically get at will), you will find that Pujols' bat is worth 78 runs above replacement, 10 more than second place in the NL and 22 more than third, and Howard's is worth 22, lower than more "average" players such as Conor Jackson, Brad Hawpe, and Rick Ankiel. And this isn't even factoring in defense, in which case Pujols' is far better than Howard's. (no I'm not using Fielding Percentage, although even the more sophisticated defense stats still have a ways to go).

I know you said that you wouldn't give the MVP to Howard but still, when you dig a little deeper than just what a guy does in term of RBI, and look at what he is solely responsible for and in all situations, it is really not even close. That's why, partly, RBI should not come close to things like MVP discussions.

Again, I'm not arguing against Albert Pujols, so I'm not sure exactly what you're trying to prove. I do think that RBI is important, but I'm not arguing that it alone should determine something like MVP. It could be (and I'm sure will be) argued that September is the most important month of the year, and it's difficult to argue against Howard being the MVP of September. Pujols himself said two seasons ago that you should be in the playoffs to be considered for MVP, so (while I don't agree with that), Pujols doesn't think he should win the award - which would then make Howard one of the couple under consideration.

Either way - the point is that it's not insane to include him in the discussion.

[HedleyLamarr]

See, that's just not true. It's not that if you put a good hitter on a different team they would magically lose half their RBI. It's that people on better teams get far more RBI chances, and RBI is basically, besides home runs, a batters ability to hit with men on base. Well if a player is surrounded by a better group of hitters, he will get more chances to get RBI. If he hits better with no one on than with men on, he gets no credit. If you get a double with a guy on first and for one guy the runner gets thrown out at home or is too slow so he has to stop at 3rd, he gets no credit as opposed to the player with the runner who is safe. If you have a difference in at bats, the person with even 10 more is going to have more opportunities to get RBI. If you draw a walk in a crucial situation or even a non-crucial situation that is not with the bases loaded, you get no credit. It is far too dependent on outside factors to be a fair comparator. It isn't useless, no, and good hitters will still get a fair amount of RBI but it simply cannot be used to judge hitters for a serious purpose.

Ryan howard is hitting .250/.338/.542 with 48 homers, 146 RBI, 199 strikeouts, and 11 GIDP.

Pujols: .346/.461/.651 with 37 homers, 115 RBI, 54 strikeouts, and 16 GIDP.

That alone speaks for itself. But let's go further. If you gather each OPS (which is known as a more independent judge of hitting talent, plain-and-simply combining basically the two most important factors of hitting) and park-adjust it, then compare it to league average, with average being 100, howard scores 122 while Pujols scores 190.

If you assign a weight value to every single outcome of an at-bat based on how those outcomes correlate with runs at the league level over the past like 10 years, then calculate approximately how many runs that player is worth compared to a replacement level player (one of those minor league free agents who come up in September, after playing in AAA and doing well, who a team could theoretically get at will), you will find that Pujols' bat is worth 78 runs above replacement, 10 more than second place in the NL and 22 more than third, and Howard's is worth 22, lower than more "average" players such as Conor Jackson, Brad Hawpe, and Rick Ankiel. So essentially Chipper Jones and his .400 flirtation plus Ryan Howard equals Pujols this year, though it is spread over 2 players rather than one and Jones has been approximately 2.5 times better than Howard, even though he disappeared in July. And this isn't even factoring in defense, in which case Pujols' is far better than Howard's. (no I'm not using Fielding Percentage, although even the more sophisticated defense stats still have a ways to go).

I know you said that you wouldn't give the MVP to Howard but still, when you dig a little deeper than just what a guy does in term of RBI, and look at what he is solely responsible for and in all situations, it is really not even close. That's why, partly, RBI should not come close to things like MVP discussions.

You're -ed in the head if you think voters go through all that Sabermetrics to determine who they're voting for.

Here are the blunt facts: Howard won 2/3rds of the Triple Crown categories, and he had a great September. And in today's game, strikeouts and a lower batting average aren't as key a stat as it was years ago. Howard also led his team to postseason while Pujols didn't....that's going to get some consideration.

[gingerbreadmann]

Ha.

Anyway, what's the situation with the Wild Card? If the Mets win and the Brewers lose, the Mets win the Wild Card and if the Brewers win and the Mets lose, the Brewers win the Wild Card.

What if BOTH teams lose, as is the case right now?

If both teams either win or lose they play each other tomorrow night at Shea in game 163.

You have got to be kidding me. That is absolutely insane.

It's called sarcasm, as Howard as a legitimate shot at winning NL MVP.

Well if he really has a legitimate shot, that's insane.

Uh oh... 1 more out!

I personally wouldn't give Howard the MVP, nor do I think he'll win it, but to say that a player who leads his league in HR and RBI, and hits .345 w/ 11 HR in September for a division winner doesn't have a legitimate shot at the award is just stupid.

RBI's are based on how your teammates get on, you can't control that. You need to have a far more independent statistic to judge a hitter.

And no you do not have a legitimate shot when you have Albert Pujols to compete with. If I did a straight up comparison of Pujols and Howard this year, using true independent stats and such, you would likely cry.

Someone did this comparison, if you took Chipper from the first four months and combined him with Manny from the last 2, he still wouldn't have had as good a year as Pujols. THAT is scary.

Oh god, I almost died. I thought that was gone.

Why would I cry? I wrote that I didn't think Howard deserved the MVP, though I would dispute your dismissal of RBI as a legit. statistic. Hitters are going to get their RBI regardless of their teams. If you put Howard (or any good power hitter) on just about any team, he'd have plenty of RBI - it's just that nobody batting after him would have any.

See, that's just not true. It's not that if you put a good hitter on a different team they would magically lose half their RBI. It's that people on better teams get far more RBI chances, and RBI is basically, besides home runs, a batters ability to hit with men on base. Well if a player is surrounded by a better group of hitters, he will get more chances to get RBI. If he hits better with no one on than with men on, he gets no credit. If you get a double with a guy on first and for one guy the runner gets thrown out at home or is too slow so he has to stop at 3rd, he gets no credit as opposed to the player with the runner who is safe. If you have a difference in at bats, the person with even 10 more is going to have more opportunities to get RBI. If you draw a walk in a crucial situation or even a non-crucial situation that is not with the bases loaded, you get no credit. It is far too dependent on outside factors to be a fair comparator. It isn't useless, no, and good hitters will still get a fair amount of RBI but it simply cannot be used to judge hitters for a serious purpose.

Ryan howard is hitting .250/.338/.542 with 48 homers, 146 RBI, 199 strikeouts, and 11 GIDP.

Pujols: .346/.461/.651 with 37 homers, 115 RBI, 54 strikeouts, and 16 GIDP.

That alone speaks for itself. But let's go further. If you gather each OPS (which is known as a more independent judge of hitting talent, plain-and-simply combining basically the two most important factors of hitting) and park-adjust it, then compare it to league average, with average being 100, howard scores 122 while Pujols scores 190.

If you assign a weight value to every single outcome of an at-bat based on how those outcomes correlate with runs at the league level over the past like 10 years, then calculate approximately how many runs that player is worth compared to a replacement level player (one of those minor league free agents who come up in September, after playing in AAA and doing well, who a team could theoretically get at will), you will find that Pujols' bat is worth 78 runs above replacement, 10 more than second place in the NL and 22 more than third, and Howard's is worth 22, lower than more "average" players such as Conor Jackson, Brad Hawpe, and Rick Ankiel. And this isn't even factoring in defense, in which case Pujols' is far better than Howard's. (no I'm not using Fielding Percentage, although even the more sophisticated defense stats still have a ways to go).

I know you said that you wouldn't give the MVP to Howard but still, when you dig a little deeper than just what a guy does in term of RBI, and look at what he is solely responsible for and in all situations, it is really not even close. That's why, partly, RBI should not come close to things like MVP discussions.

Again, I'm not arguing against Albert Pujols, so I'm not sure exactly what you're trying to prove. I do think that RBI is important, but I'm not arguing that it alone should determine something like MVP. It could be (and I'm sure will be) argued that September is the most important month of the year, and it's difficult to argue against Howard being the MVP of September. Pujols himself said two seasons ago that you should be in the playoffs to be considered for MVP, so (while I don't agree with that), Pujols doesn't think he should win the award - which would then make Howard one of the couple under consideration.

Either way - the point is that it's not insane to include him in the discussion.

I understand that, I am just making a case why Howard shouldn't be in the discussion based purely on his leading the league in RBI. I disagree with Pujols' statement too, and he will be in the discussion because many writers do go by RBI and HR a lot more than the should, he has been hot in September, and he is in the playoffs. Again the MLB leaves "Most valuable" open to interpretation intentionally, and everyone interprets it differently, so I suppose it is true he will be in the discussion for those reasons alone. My beef was more with using RBI as a serious hitting comparator/evaluator, and while I still think it's no comparison between them for MVP, you are correct he will be in the mix regardless for the reasons you mentioned and I just addressed. I think the underlying factor here is how people interpret "Most Valuable" -- it is all over the place, and that screws up our discussion.

Hedley -- Again, I never argued that. The writers do and believe their own , sensical or not. I m not living in a dream world where all the writers vote based on that stuff, it goes without saying they never will. Everyone has their own criteria.

[infrared41]

Does this mean no more Shea Stadium Goodbye threads?

We'll probably just move right to Citi Field hello threads.

Another nice choke job by The Mets. Is Tank on suicide watch again?

[BB61]

Yes, someone make sure Frank is still alive and with us.

[FiddySicks]

You know I actually thought the Mets weren't going to blow it and make it in as the wild card. But wow.

And does anyone know, as DirtyCurty said, if the fans went nuts, booing and all that good stuff?

From what I saw the place was like being inside of a church, completely silent.

[RyanMcD29]

That closing ceremony was beautiful. Shame the stadium had to go out on a low note, but that ceremony was a work of art

[Brass]

Tank's suicide watch has been upgraded to Red. Weird that he hasn't posted in this trade yet, blaming either the pitching staff, Omar Minaya, or Jesus.

[jkrdevil]

Did anyone watch the game on TV? Are Mets fans booing, littering the field with trash, and/or ripping up seats ala Cleveland before the Browns moved to Baltimore -- and is the cavalry led by a white sumo wrestler with a Super Mario mustache?

From all reports it is dead silent there.

And I guarantee you know one is stealing seats. I was at the last game at Yankee Stadium last week and there was a ton of police presence and they made multiple announcements that you will be arrested to steal anything or damage property.

[Sport]

He'll be fine. He was able to handle a much worse collapse last year than this year.

Also, my playoff predictions

NLDS

Brewers over Phillies

Cubs over Dodgers

NLCS

Cubs over Brewers

ALDS

Angels over Red Sox

Rays over CHW/MIN

ALCS

Angels over Rays

World Series

Angels over Cubs

[CC97]

Weird that he hasn't posted

I would have to believe that Frank was/is at Shea Stadium, he likely purchased his tickets well in advance knowing this was to be the last regular season game at Shea Stadium.

[njmeadowlanders]

That closing ceremony was beautiful. Shame the stadium had to go out on a low note, but that ceremony was a work of art

Amen.

Goodbye Old Friend. You'll Be Missed.

5:04 PM EDT - September 28, 2008 - Ryan Church flies out F8. Shea Stadium is forever closed.

[Drew22]

Weird that he hasn't posted

I would have to believe that Frank was/is at Shea Stadium, he likely purchased his tickets well in advance knowing this was to be the last regular season game at Shea Stadium.

I think he posted early about how he had tickets to this game.

[BaltimoreFan]

Way to go Brewers!!

This is unreal. I don't know what to expect now. This post season thing is so new to me (and the Brewers)

Resign yourself to a quick exit because Sabathia's arm is about to fall off?

Actually the effects of overuse are usually seen the following season (see Mark Prior and Kerry Wood in 2004). It seems the Brewers are getting the most out of their half season rental of Sabathia. They're probably just going to let him walk for the draft picks anyway. The teams looking to sign him in the offseason are going to have to be cautious. But Sabathia is a big guy, I wouldn't be surprised if his body was able to take it.

[NJTank]

Yes I was at the game and just got back a short while ago I will be posting pics.

If Scott Schowenweiss and Aaron Heilman ever wear a Mets uniform again I will scream.

Its amazing how close they came with a bullpen so bad, so I hope they bring Jerry Manuel back next year, and dump the entire bullpen.

I hope Omar does not get his extension.

I hope they eat Luis Castillo's contract.

and most of all I want K-Rod.

The ceremony was trully great but I dont know this team is too good to miss the playoffs two years in a row. Is it lack of heart? Like of a clutch hit? Lack of a leader? I dont know but they must figure it out for next year.