buzzcut

Rite of Spring 2019: The Chase for the Stanley Cup

Recommended Posts

Hockey isn't a very good analytics sport. I wish we'd stop trying to force it to be ice baseball. It isn't. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, the admiral said:

Hockey isn't a very good analytics sport. I wish we'd stop trying to force it to be ice baseball. It isn't. 

 

How DARE you insult the CORSI god!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Go BlueSharks!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Lafarge said:

 

How DARE you insult the CORSI god!

 

I mean, yeah, over the course of a season, possession will generally positively correlate with wins. That's true. But just like Billy Beane's sh-t doesn't work in the playoffs, best-of-sevens are really about exploiting mismatches up and down the lineup and solving goalies you might not solve on a one-off February weeknight. Artlessly playing bombardment is a lot easier for opposing teams to figure out when you don't have Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, AustinFomBoston said:

Carolina was just outclassed that entire series. It was the worst possible match up for them, and the best for The Bruins. I think nearly any other team (Islanders, Caps, Pens) would have been a tougher match up for them (no offense to Hurricanes).  

 

Now for America's worst nightmare, the Boston Triple Crown!

tenor.gif?itemid=4552944

 

Or the Bay Area Double (Warriors & Sharks)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, the admiral said:

 

I mean, yeah, over the course of a season, possession will generally positively correlate with wins. That's true. But just like Billy Beane's sh-t doesn't work in the playoffs, best-of-sevens are really about exploiting mismatches up and down the lineup and solving goalies you might not solve on a one-off February weeknight. Artlessly playing bombardment is a lot easier for opposing teams to figure out when you don't have Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel.

 

Oh, I completely agree with you on your point. I was more referring to how popular CORSI is as an analytical stat to throw out before the team with the better rating gets absolutely pasted. Hockey analytical stats don't work unless combined with each other, and even then the predictive ability is marginal at best. It's been a pretty common complaint about analytics that it's too focused on the numbers, and that's definitely true. Sure, the Hurricanes had crazy shot numbers, but they were worse in literally every other facet of the game. And as you said, in hockey its much less important than in other sports, especially when a weird bounce on a divet in the ice created by a player slipping 7 minutes earlier can result in a win. No other sport has that sheer randomness combined with pure force to create results.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We live in the darkest timeline.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks, Carolina. That was totally worth it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Kramerica Industries said:

I just gone done watching the game, and I can't be bothered to go back and read the last couple of pages (it is nearly 4am after all and I'm still awake for some g-d forsaken reason), but I'm sure in all the hysteria of how the game ended that it's totally forgotten that the Blues got away with an obvious delay of game penalty on Perron that didn't get caught by the officials, only for Perron to immediately score two goals on the other end and give the Blues the lead to begin with. A lead they held until the final minute of regulation. 

 

Yes, sure, missed call on the officials part, the handpass. I get it. Maybe lets be fair and say both teams benefitted from mistakes, 'cuz that's exactly what happened.

Another thing that has been forgotten as how the puck went to Nyquist from the hand pass, not directly to Karlsson who scored. If they do review those in the future, will they look at directly from the hand pass, or say conceivably go back as few passes to look at a potential hand pass from the by the same team?  Will there be a "statute of limitations"of sorts. Will it kinda be like offside where they can go back a minute or so to see if it happened?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

St. Louis Blues, for all that is good, could you sack up and just not be the St. Louis Blues over the next 2 to 11 games?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The only bad thing that can happen is Boston suffers from the rust of sweeping Carolina while San Jose and St. Louis fight to the death in a possible 7 game series. Unless the Sharks come out and end this in 5.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The three teams who swept somebody in these playoffs lost in the next round. In the Islanders and Hurricanes case they were swept themselves. It'd be very Boston of the Bruins to buck that trend. 

 

 

10 hours ago, the admiral said:

Hockey isn't a very good analytics sport. I wish we'd stop trying to force it to be ice baseball. It isn't. 


It's not a good analytics sport. I'm not anti-analytics in hockey, I just think they haven't perfected them yet and it's annoying that all the statboys behave like they're gospel. I just want the statboys to be be less cocksure when their models all seem to average out about 58%, at best, in calling games. They all took a big ass dump in the first round and then in round two were right back to being like "yeah but now this same model will be right". 

 

It doesn't help that these predictive models use the regular season to forecast the playoffs results when they're basically two different sports.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Still MIGHTY said:

St. Louis Blues, for all that is good, could you sack up and just not be the St. Louis Blues over the next 2 to 11 games?

 

No.

 

I mean, the Blues will win one of the next two, but only to set up the loss in 6.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, the admiral said:

Hockey isn't a very good analytics sport. I wish we'd stop trying to force it to be ice baseball. It isn't. 

Perhaps one of the biggest pieces of evidence against hockey analytics is the fact that Brooks Orpik, the man who analytics have outed as one of (if not the) worst defensemen in the entire league, has become one of the Caps’ best and most important players in the last two playoffs. Without him there would be no Cup. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, McCarthy said:

It's not a good analytics sport. I'm not anti-analytics in hockey, I just think they haven't perfected them yet and it's annoying that all the statboys behave like they're gospel. I just want the statboys to be be less cocksure when their models all seem to average out about 58%, at best, in calling games. They all took a big ass dump in the first round and then in round two were right back to being like "yeah but now this same model will be right". 

 

It doesn't help that these predictive models use the regular season to forecast the playoffs results when they're basically two different sports.

 

I've said all this before and I'll say it again: hockey requires attention to unquantifiable human elements in addition to statistical analysis, and it's always struck me as funny that the people who most loudly champion statistical analysis with no allowance for anything else were usually the sorts of fuzzy liberal-arts types who would otherwise recoil at the reduction of human beings to mere data points, and have all probably at some point railed against the evils of "STEMlords." I'd say the real value of fealty to analytics is in being able to look down on other people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Bucfan56 said:

 

spacer.png

Circling back to this post to officially thank you for my new favorite reaction image. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, tp49 said:

So the Islanders swept the Penguins, Got swept by Carolina who got swept by Boston.  Does this mean Boston will get swept by whoever comes out of the west?

Gods, I hope so. I know a lot of Boston sports fans. There are still some good eggs, but overall, they've become insufferable. Root for a city to get their third Championship in 8 months? No thanks. Sure, the B's haven't hoisted the Cup since '08, but the West will have a team that has never won the Cup. Whether it be a 52 year drought, or a 27 year one, it's a no-brainer who I'm rooting for.

To be fair, I think that much success would ruin pretty much any city. I don't think any other location has come anywhere close enough to so much success across all 4 major leagues in such a span for us to have a valid comparison. *sigh* at least the Celtics are out, i guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I find that the analytic stats can be great for *explaining* things, but not for *predicting* outcomes.

 

Like knowing how a defenseman is deployed via zone starts is good for Norris/value arguments (are they put on the ice in mostly offensive or defensive situations, and against what lines and in what time of the game) and the same on that stat for forwards (defensive/offensive faceoffs, etc.). There are a multitude of great goalie stats to debate the quality of shots taken or WAR-like stat for number of goals prevented against average and stuff like that. (I find the goalie analytics to be some of the best/true-to-life analytic stats.) Stats like that are good for exactly as they're described: analysis.

 

But basing a team concept on that and that alone, no. You can use it to help in selecting the players, sure, but in terms of possession numbers via shot statistics? No, creating a game plan simply around MOAR SHOTZ is not a way to go. I mean, anybody that's simply watched a hockey game can tell you that shot numbers alone aren't the full story and shouldn't be seen as such. If a team is outshot 60-3 but wins 2-1, you could say one team dominated and the other goalie stood on his head. But say those 60 shots all came from the blueline or below the goal line and the other 3 came within 3-5 feet of the net, then you see there's a different story.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Still MIGHTY said:

I find that the analytic stats can be great for *explaining* things, but not for *predicting* outcomes.

I’m a journalism student at my university, and I have had my own hockey radio show at points, and there’s currently one kid that has a hockey show, and his show is nothing but repeating stats and using those to predict the winners of the next games... Things like “Well last game the Kings had 35 shots on goal and scored 3 goals to win, while the Flames had 34 shots, only scored once and dropped the game. The Kings are “clearly” the better team heading into tonight’s game. And based of the Kings recent record in the last few games, and they play better at home, I think that they’re gonna come away with this one 4-2.”

 

The last time the Flames played the Kings, the final was 7-2 Flames. 🙄

 

I often listen to this Kid, cause I’m in one of the studios, and the station is playing. It drives me up a wall the stuff he says, because he’s only relying on stats, and doesn’t quite understand the game. I’ve had to correct him a few times on things, because he had no idea what was going on. He had a segment where he talked about the Preds starting Jusse Saros over Rinne when they were playing in Minnesota. He went on for about 15 minutes talking about how the stats for Saros weren’t there, and how Rinne is better in every category. Of course the reasons Rinne doesn’t start in Minnesota is because he sucks at the Xcel Energy Center. Like that’s the only reason. Rinne might be a better goalie most of the time, but sometimes there’s those mental things and little quirks that you need to know about. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.